SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF LOW FERTILITY IN BRAZIL
SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF LOW FERTILITY IN BRAZIL
复制标题
巴西低生育率的社会决定因素
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
H. Kohler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Castanheira;H. Kohler
越来越多的发展中国家的生育率低于更替生育率。虽然文献中广泛探讨了与发达国家低生育率有关的因素，但关于中低收入国家低生育率的研究仍然很少。为了帮助填补这一差距，巴西被用作案例研究，以评估人类发展、性别平等和有幼儿的母亲的工作能力是否与已婚或同居妇女生育子女的可能性有关。为此目的，使用1991年、2000年和2010年巴西人口普查估计了多水平logistic回归。研究发现，在所分析的三个时期，人类发展与生育率呈负相关。2000年和2010年，在巴西，性别平等和有年幼子女的母亲的工作能力与高次生育的几率呈正相关。在1991年，这些变量与更高的顺序出生没有关联，性别平等与第一胎负相关。2000年和2010年发现的正相关关系可能逆转了在人口结构转型早期很可能普遍存在的关系，当时性别平等很可能与生育率水平呈负相关。
Summary An increasing number of developing countries are experiencing below replacement fertility rates. Although the factors associated with low fertility in developed countries have been widely explored in the literature, studies of low fertility in middle- and low-income countries continue to be rare. To help fill this gap, Brazil was used as a case study to assess whether human development, gender equality and the ability of mothers with young children to work are associated with the likelihood of married or cohabiting women to have a child. For this purpose, multilevel logistic regressions were estimated using the 1991, 2000 and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses. It was found that human development was negatively associated with fertility in the three periods analysed. Gender equality and the ability of mothers with young children to work were positively associated with the odds of having higher order births in Brazil in 2000 and 2010. In 1991, these variables were not associated with higher order births, and gender equality was negatively associated with first births. The positive association found in 2000 and 2010 may constitute a reversal of the relationship that in all likelihood prevailed earlier in the demographic transition when gender equality was most likely negatively correlated with fertility levels.