Predicting the sensitivity of marine populations to rising temperatures
Predicting the sensitivity of marine populations to rising temperatures
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DOI：
10.1002/fee.1986
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发表时间：
2018-12
影响因子：
10.3
通讯作者：
A Randall Hughes;T. C. Hanley;Althea F. P. Moore;Christine Ramsay-Newton;Robyn A. Zerebecki;E. Sotka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A Randall Hughes;T. C. Hanley;Althea F. P. Moore;Christine Ramsay-Newton;Robyn A. Zerebecki;E. Sotka
B由于人类活动大大增加了大气中二氧化碳和其他温室气体的浓度，陆地和海洋温度正在迅速变化（Diffenbaugh and Field 2013; Laffoley and Baxter 2016）。预测和管理全球气候变化的影响需要了解人口脆弱性（即受到不利影响的倾向或倾向；IPCC 2014）。虽然科学文献对物种脆弱性的定义缺乏共识（Pacifici et al. 2015），但研究人员认为，它是内在和外在因素的函数，包括暴露、敏感性和适应能力（Williams et al. 2008; Foden et al. 2013）。暴露度被定义为一个物种或地方可能经历的气候变化程度，取决于该物种所占据的栖息地和地区的气候变化（温度、降水、海平面上升等）的速度和幅度（Williams et al. 2008）。敏感性是一个系统或物种受气候变化影响的程度（IPCC 2014），可以通过物种固有的特征来确定（Foden et al. 2013）。适应能力被定义为系统、机构、人类和其他生物适应潜在损害、利用机会或对后果作出反应的能力（IPCC 2014）。对于物种或种群来说，这种能力可以通过自然选择和其他进化机制得到增强，它取决于内在因素（表型可塑性、遗传多样性、进化速度、扩散和定殖能力）和外在因素（气候变化的速度、幅度和性质）（Dawson et al. 2011）。温度变化可以改变物种分布和物候、物种相互作用、群落多样性和生态系统功能（Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Vasseur et al. 2014）。温度升高通常有利于种群适应度，直到温度超过热最优（Topt； Kingsolver和Huey 2008），之后种群适应度往往下降（图1；Huey et al. 2012）。种群热性能曲线（TPCs）通过提供识别易受气温上升影响的物种的关键数据，促进了气候适应规划和管理（Vasseur et al. 2014）。尽管在陆地种群（Huey and Kingsolver 1989）和海洋种群（Kinne 1960）中对生存、生长和繁殖的热敏感性的实验评估已有很长的历史，但这些研究很少包括足够范围的温度处理，以充分描述适合度反应的上升和下降。这使得它们无法用于需要tpc来捕获物种整个热响应的物种脆弱性合成（例如Deutsch et al. 2008; Araújo et al. 2013）。为了评估多样性和较少研究的分类群对变暖的敏感性，研究人员需要简单的方法，以便于利用所有现有的种群对温度变化的响应信息（Williams et al. 2008; Huey et al. 2012; Nadeau et al. 2017）。在没有完整的tpc的情况下，潜在的替代指标可以包括最高临界温度（死亡发生的温度高于Topt）、野外平均体温和实验室首选体温（Huey et al. 2012）。然而，这些需要细致的实验操作，因此大多数分类群和种群的数据仍然不可用（但参见Comte和Olden[2017]对淡水和海洋鳍鱼的分析）。在这项研究中，我们检验了年平均温度（MAT）在分类学上预测海洋种群对温度上升敏感性的能力
B land and ocean temperatures are changing rapidly as a result of human activities that have substantially increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (Diffenbaugh and Field 2013; Laffoley and Baxter 2016). Predicting and managing the effects of global climate change require knowledge of population vulnerability (ie the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected; IPCC 2014). While scientific literature lacks consensus regarding the definition of species vulnerability (Pacifici et al. 2015), researchers suggest that it is a function of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors and includes exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (Williams et al. 2008; Foden et al. 2013). Exposure is defined as the extent of climate change likely to be experienced by a species or place and depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change (temperature, precipitation, sealevel rise, etc) in habitats and regions occupied by the species (Williams et al. 2008). Sensitivity is the degree to which a system or species is affected by changes in climate (IPCC 2014) and can be determined by traits that are intrinsic to a species (Foden et al. 2013). Adaptive capacity is defined as the ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences (IPCC 2014). For species or populations, such capacity may be enhanced through natural selection and other evolutionary mechanisms, and it depends on both intrinsic factors (phenotypic plasticity, genetic diversity, evolutionary rates, dispersal and colonization ability) and extrinsic factors (rate, magnitude, and nature of climatic change) (Dawson et al. 2011). Changes in temperature can alter species distributions and phenology, species interactions, community diversity, and ecosystem function (Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Vasseur et al. 2014). Increases in temperature generally benefit population fitness until temperatures exceed a thermal optimum (Topt; Kingsolver and Huey 2008), after which population fitness often declines (Figure 1; Huey et al. 2012). Population thermal performance curves (TPCs) have facilitated climate adaptation planning and management by providing critical data for identifying species that are vulnerable to rising temperatures (Vasseur et al. 2014). Although experimental assessments of thermal sensitivity in survivorship, growth, and reproduction have a long history in both terrestrial (Huey and Kingsolver 1989) and marine (Kinne 1960) populations, these studies have only rarely included a sufficient range of temperature treatments to fully describe both the rise and fall of the fitness response. This has precluded their use in syntheses of species vulnerability requiring TPCs that capture species’ entire thermal response (eg Deutsch et al. 2008; Araújo et al. 2013). In order to evaluate the sensitivity of diverse and less studied taxa to warming, researchers need simple methods that would facilitate use of all existing information on population responses to temperature change (Williams et al. 2008; Huey et al. 2012; Nadeau et al. 2017). In the absence of full TPCs, potential proxies could include maximum critical temperature (the temperature above Topt at which mortality occurs), mean body temperature in the field, and preferred body temperature in the lab (Huey et al. 2012). However, these require meticulous experimental manipulations, and data therefore remain unavailable for most taxa and populations (but see Comte and Olden [2017] for an analysis of freshwater and marine rayfinned fishes). In this study, we examined the ability of mean annual temperature (MAT) to predict the sensitivity of taxonomically Predicting the sensitivity of marine populations to rising temperatures