What do prediction markets predict?
What do prediction markets predict?
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DOI：
10.1080/13504850903559575
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发表时间：
2011-01-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Harrison, Glenn W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fountain, John;Harrison, Glenn W.
我们表明，预测市场不能总是依赖于任何有趣的统计汇总信念。在预测市场中下注的正式衍生可以被视为对状态相依商品的需求。我们提供了两个流行的情况下，日志效用和恒定相对风险厌恶（CRRA）效用的推导，这些推导连接到熟悉的评分规则。然后，我们使用这些结果来证明预测市场的属性如何严重依赖于假设的同质性的参与者。
We show that prediction markets cannot be relied on to always elicit any interesting statistic of aggregate beliefs. Formal derivations of the bets placed in prediction markets can be viewed as demands for state-contingent commodities. We provide derivations for two popular cases, log utility and Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility, connecting these derivations to familiar scoring rules. We then use these results to demonstrate how the properties of prediction markets depend critically on the assumed homogeneity of participants.