Long-term Caspian Sea level change
Long-term Caspian Sea level change
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DOI：
10.1002/2017gl073958
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发表时间：
2017-07-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Safarov, E. S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, J. L.;Pekker, T.;Safarov, E. S.
里海平面（CSL）在过去数百年中经历了大幅波动。整个历史时期的原因尚不清楚，但我们在这里调查过去几十年来发生的巨大变化。我们使用气候模型预测的降水量 (P)、蒸发量 (E) 和观测到的河流径流 (R) 来重建 1979-2015 年的长期 CSL 变化，并表明 PER (P-E + R) 通量预测与观测到的 CSL 变化非常吻合。 1979-1995 年和 1996-2015 年期间观察到的 CSL 快速增加（约 12.74 厘米/年）和显着下降（约-6.72 厘米/年）可以通过综合 PER 通量预测分别与+12.38 和-6.79 厘米/年很好地解释。我们表明，里海蒸发率的增加在扭转过去 37 年 CSL 增加趋势方面发挥了主导作用。在全球变暖的情况下，目前 CSL 的长期下降预计将在可预见的未来持续下去。
Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model-predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long-term CSL changes for 1979-2015 and show that PER (P-E + R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop (similar to-6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979-1995 and 1996-2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of similar to+12.38 and similar to-6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long-term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios.