An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve
An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2008.01.007
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发表时间：
2008-04
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Gang Wu;Ying Fan;Lan-Cui Liu;Yi-Ming Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gang Wu;Ying Fan;Lan-Cui Liu;Yi-Ming Wei
未来世界油价受多种因素影响。因此，面临的挑战是如何选择最佳的库存采购战略，以尽量减少维持储备的费用。本文提出了一种新的方法来分析这个问题，使用不确定动态规划模型来分析战略石油储备的库存获取策略。利用该模型，我们量化了世界石油价格的不确定性对中国战略石油储备的最优库存获取策略的影响，为2007-2010年和2011-2020年。研究结果表明，中国未来的石油库存购买量与油价及其概率有关，如果不考虑石油供应短缺的发生，当国际油价处于最优水平时，中国至少应该购买2500万桶石油。各年度的最优库存收购价格与高价概率有较强的相关性;各年度的最优库存收购价格和规模各不相同。
The world's future oil price is affected by many factors. The challenge, therefore, is how to select optimal stockpile acquisition strategies to minimize the cost of maintaining a reserve. This paper provides a new method for analyzing this problem using an uncertain dynamic programming model to analyze stockpile acquisition strategies for strategic petroleum reserve. Using this model, we quantify the impact of uncertain world oil price on optimal stockpile acquisition strategies of China's strategic petroleum reserve for the period 2007–2010 and 2011–2020. Our results show that the future stockpile acquisition is related to oil prices and their probability and, if not considering the occurrence of oil supply shortage, China should at least purchase 25 million barrels when world oil price is at an optimal level. The optimal price of stockpile acquisition of every year has a stronger relationship with the probability of high price; and the optimal expected price and size of stockpile acquisition is different in each year.