A Simple Model of the Chinese Hukou System and Some Ongoing Reforms
A Simple Model of the Chinese Hukou System and Some Ongoing Reforms
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发表时间：
2016-02
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通讯作者：
Laixun Zhao
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作者：
Laixun Zhao
我们以中国的户籍制度为模型，从严格执行的毛泽东时代到改革初期（邓小平时代），农民只允许进城务工。本文通过对户籍控制的典型特征的分析，建立了一个严格的二元劳动力市场模型，该模型可以解释城乡分割，特别是在转型初期，农民工不仅为中国的出口繁荣做出了重要贡献，而且扭转了中国的贸易格局--从出口初级产品到出口制成品，因为他们是“世界制造业中心”的劳动力。改革弥补了毛泽东严格控制户口政策的一些无谓损失，但改革的收益分配不均。我们也运用这个模型来检验各种政策和一些正在进行的改革，如经济特区，出口退税，城市化，私有化，独生子女政策等的影响。
We model the Chinese Hukou (household registration) system, from the Mao era when it was strictly enforced to the early reform era (Deng Xiaoping era) when peasants were allowed to migrate to cities for work only. We document some stylized characteristics of Hukou control, and based on which build a rigorous model of the dual labor market generated by it. The model can explain the urban-rural divide, especially in the early transition period, and the fact that rural migrant workers not only made important contributions to China's export boom, but also reversed the Chinese trade pattern—from exporting primary products to manufactured goods, because they are the labor force in "the manufacturing hub of the world". Reform recovers some of the deadweight losses from Mao's strict Hukou control, but the gains from reform are unevenly distributed. We also apply the model to examine the impacts of various policies and some ongoing reforms such as special economic zones, export-tax refund, urbanization, privatization, one-child policy, etc.