Assessing uncertainty in the profitability of prairie biomass production with ecosystem service compensation
Assessing uncertainty in the profitability of prairie biomass production with ecosystem service compensation
复制标题
通过生态系统服务补偿评估草原生物质生产盈利能力的不确定性
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.05.004
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Jason D. Hill
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Noe;E. R. Nachman;Hannah Heavenrich;B. Keeler;D. Hernández;Jason D. Hill
对生态系统服务的补偿可以鼓励管理农业系统，以获得作物生产以外的广泛惠益。在这里，我们探讨如何支付固碳和磷保留影响多年生草本生物质的盈利能力和经济竞争力。我们考虑的情况下，目前在美国明尼苏达州南部的玉米和大豆生产的边际土地，以本地多样化的草原作为生物燃料原料。我们估计由此产生的土壤碳储量和水质的变化，以及两者的经济价值。为了测试我们的结果的鲁棒性，我们进行Monte Carlo模拟，将可变性和不确定性，在我们的模型参数。我们的分析表明，草原生物量生产的边际土地是22%的可能性是有利可图的生态系统服务补偿时，但只有5%，当它不是。这表明，这里模拟的两个生态系统服务可能不足以使草原生物质生产可靠的盈利。此外，通过使用模型参数的范围，而不是点估计，这项研究表明，传统的行作物和草原之间的盈利能力差距太大，在最近的经济条件下，在这里建模的两个服务关闭。
Compensation for ecosystem services can encourage the management of agricultural systems for a broad range of benefits beyond crop production. Here we explore how payments for carbon sequestration and phosphorus retention affect the profitability and economic competitiveness of perennial herbaceous biomass. We consider the case of converting marginal land currently in corn and soy production in southern Minnesota, United States, to native diverse prairie grown as a biofuel feedstock. We estimate the resulting changes in soil carbon storage and water quality, and the economic value of both. To test the robustness of our results, we perform Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate variability and uncertainty in our model parameters. Our analyses show that prairie biomass production on marginal lands is 22% likely to be profitable when ecosystem service compensation is included, but only 5% when it is not. This suggests that the two ecosystem services modeled here may alone be insufficient to make prairie biomass production reliably profitable. Furthermore, by using ranges of model parameters rather than point estimates, this study shows that the profitability gap between conventional row crops and prairie is too large to be closed with the two services modeled here across a range of recent economic conditions.