Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?
Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab6999
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发表时间：
2020-03
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Sabine Undorf;Kathleen M. S. Allen;Joseph Hagg;Sihan Li;F. Lott;M. Metzger;S. Sparrow;S. Tett
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sabine Undorf;Kathleen M. S. Allen;Joseph Hagg;Sihan Li;F. Lott;M. Metzger;S. Sparrow;S. Tett
为了了解高温和极端温度对苏格兰适应气候变化是否重要，我们将2018年热浪置于过去，现在和未来气候的背景下，并提供快速但全面的影响分析。2018年观测到的最热日（d）、5 d和30 d周期以及最热夜晚的5 d周期在1950-2018年的重现期为5-15年。最暖夜和最大30 d夜间平均温度更不寻常，重现期>30年。自1850年以来的人为气候变化使所有这些极端高温更有可能发生。CMIP第6代全球气候模型HadGEM 3-GA6的实验风险比比超大型集合系统weather@home的实验风险高。在它们之间，对于1、5和30天的平均值，白天极端情况的风险比的最佳估计值范围在1.2-2.4、1.2-2.3和1.4-4.0之间。对于相应的夜间极端，值更高，范围更宽（1.5- >50，1.5-5.5和1.6- >50）。2018年短周期夜间极端事件发生的可能性比2017年更大，这表明逐年气候变率对人为影响导致极端温度风险增加的贡献。气候预测表明，从现在到2050年，2018年气温可能会进一步大幅上升，到世纪末，每个夏天都可能像2018年一样炎热。产生了重大的负面影响，特别是对农村部门，而运输和供水基础设施通过实施代价高昂的特别措施减轻了大部分影响。总体而言，苏格兰可以科普2018年热浪的影响。然而，考虑到极端高温的可能性增加，更高温度和/或反复热浪的后果的不确定性，以及防止负面影响的巨大成本，我们得出结论，尽管气候凉爽，极端高温对于苏格兰适应气候变化非常重要。
To understand whether high temperatures and temperature extremes are important for climate change adaptation in Scotland, we place the 2018 heatwave in the context of past, present, and future climate, and provide a rapid but comprehensive impact analysis. The observed hottest day (d), 5 d, and 30 d period of 2018 and the 5 d period with the warmest nights had return periods of 5–15 years for 1950–2018. The warmest night and the maximum 30 d average nighttime temperature were more unusual with return periods of >30 years. Anthropogenic climate change since 1850 has made all these high-temperature extremes more likely. Higher risk ratios are found for experiments from the CMIP6-generation global climate model HadGEM3-GA6 compared to those from the very-large ensemble system weather@home. Between them, the best estimates of the risk ratios for daytime extremes range between 1.2–2.4, 1.2–2.3, and 1.4–4.0 for the 1, 5, and 30 d averages. For the corresponding nighttime extremes, the values are higher and the ranges wider (1.5- >50, 1.5–5.5, and 1.6- >50). The short-period nighttime extremes were more likely in 2018 than in 2017, suggesting a contribution from year-to-year climate variability to the risk enhancement of extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic effects. Climate projections suggest further substantial increases in the likelihood of 2018 temperatures between now and 2050, and that towards the end of the century every summer might be as hot as 2018. Major negative impacts occurred, especially on rural sectors, while transport and water infrastructure alleviated most impacts by implementing costly special measures. Overall, Scotland could cope with the impacts of the 2018 heatwave. However, given the likelihood increase of high-temperature extremes, uncertainty about consequences of even higher temperatures and/or repeated heatwaves, and substantial costs of preventing negative impacts, we conclude that despite its cool climate, high-temperature extremes are important to consider for climate change adaptation in Scotland.