A statistical model of temporal variation of seismicity in the Inner Zone of Southwest Japan related to the great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough
A statistical model of temporal variation of seismicity in the Inner Zone of Southwest Japan related to the great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough
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DOI：
10.4294/jpe1952.44.349
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发表时间：
1996-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Oike, K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hori, T;Oike, K
为了评价南开海槽前后日本西南部内带地震活动性的时间变化，引入了统计模型，并对模型参数进行了估计。我们用灾难性地震的数据来估计它们。由于缺乏空间上足够的数据，我们在近畿北部地区的案例中使用了9世纪的数据，而在日本西南部整个内带的案例中，我们只使用了17世纪之后的数据。结果表明：近畿北部地区的地震活动在南开槽事件发生前有一个高峰，而整个日本西南内陆地区在南开槽事件发生前没有明显的变化。南开海槽事件后，日本西南部内带地震活动性增强。我们将得到的强度函数与最近的1885 - 1995年的JMA数据进行了比较。在过去的30年里，地震活动似乎有所增加。利用这一时期的资料，估计了下一次南开槽事件的发生时间。我们的研究结果表明，这将发生在2030年。
To evaluate the temporal variation of seismicity in the Inner Zone of Southwest Japan before and after the Nankai trough events, we introduced a statistical model and estimated the value of the model parameters. We used the data of disastrous earthquakes to estimate them. Because of the lack of spatially sufficient data, we used data from the 9th century in the case of the northern Kinki region, and in the case of the whole Inner Zone of Southwest Japan only data after the 17th century. The results show that for the northern Kinki region the seismicity has a peak before the Nankai trough events, although there is no significant change before them in the whole Inner Zone of Southwest Japan. The seismicity in the Inner Zone of Southwest Japan increases just after the Nankai trough events. We compared the obtained intensity functions with the recent JMA data from 1885 to 1995. The seismicity seems to have increased in the last 30 years. Using data from this period, we estimated the occurrence time of the next Nankai trough event. Our results show that it will occur in the 2030 degrees S.