Estimating unreported malaria cases in England: a capture-recapture study
Estimating unreported malaria cases in England: a capture-recapture study
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268809991130
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发表时间：
2010-07-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Fraser, G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cathcart, S. J.;Lawrence, J.;Fraser, G.
进行了一项捕获再捕获研究，以估计英格兰疟疾病例的发病率和可能的总负担。2003年7月至2004年12月期间由国家疟疾参考实验室（MRL）诊断的病例与使用人口统计学、地理学、寄生虫学和时间信息向医院发作统计报告的病例相匹配。在一个或两个数据集中共记录了3861例病例;“未知人群”估计为746例病例（95% CI 677-822），18个月内共记录了4607例病例（95% CI 4446-4767）。84%（95% CI 83-85）的病例记录在一个或两个数据集中。MRL监测系统捕获了五十六%（95%CI 54-58）的病例;恶性疟原虫和伦敦病例的确定率分别为66%和62%。改善病例确定将有助于采取有效措施，减少这种可预防疾病在英国的负担。
A capture recapture study was undertaken to estimate the incidence and likely total burden of malaria cases in England. Cases diagnosed by the national Malaria Reference Laboratory (MRL) between July 2003 and December 2004 were matched with cases reported to Hospital Episode Statistics using demographic, geographical, parasitological, and temporal information. A total of 3861 cases were recorded in one or both datasets; the 'unknown population' was estimated as 746 cases (95% CI 677-822) giving a total of 4607 cases (95% CI 4446-4767) over 18 months. Eighty-four percent (95% Cl 83-85) of cases were recorded in one or both datasets. Fifty-six percent (95% CI 54-58) of cases were captured by the MRL surveillance system; ascertainment for Plasmodium falciparum and London cases was higher at 66% and 62%, respectively. Improving case ascertainment will facilitate effective measures to reduce the burden of this preventable disease in the UK.