Predicting the effect of interspecific competition on habitat suitability for the endangered African wild dog under future climate and land cover changes
Predicting the effect of interspecific competition on habitat suitability for the endangered African wild dog under future climate and land cover changes
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DOI：
10.4404/hystrix-27.1-11678
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发表时间：
2016-06
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
M. Jones;L. Bertola;O. Razgour
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Jones;L. Bertola;O. Razgour
顶级捕食者在调节生态相互作用中发挥着重要作用，因此它们的丧失可能会影响整个营养级的生物多样性。整个非洲大型食肉动物的数量和活动范围均大幅减少，未来的气候变化可能会加剧这些威胁。因此，了解未来的环境变化将如何影响它们的长期栖息地适宜性和种群持续性非常重要。本研究旨在确定限制濒临灭绝的非洲野狗 Lycaon pictus 分布的因素，并确定生物相互作用以及气候和土地覆盖变化将如何影响未来的范围适宜性。我们使用物种分布模型 (SDM) 来预测斑虎及其主要竞争对手豹属当前和未来的适宜条件分布。我们表明，斑马鱼的分布范围适宜性受到气候和土地覆盖变量以及与狮子斑虎的高生态位和分布范围重叠的限制。尽管预计这两个物种在未来的气候变化下都会经历活动范围缩小，但红腹锦鲤可能会受益于其活动范围东部和中部的种间竞争效应的释放。我们的研究强调了在预测其范围不仅仅受到气候限制的物种的未来分布时，将土地覆盖变量与相应的未来预测相结合并纳入竞争物种的影响的重要性。我们的结论是，SDM 可以帮助确定大型食肉动物长期保护的优先领域，因此应该用于为未来气候变化的适应性保护管理提供信息。
Apex predators play an important role in regulating ecological interactions, and therefore their loss can affect biodiversity across trophic levels. Large carnivores have experienced substantial population and range declines across Africa, and future climate change is likely to amplify these threats. Hence it is important to understand how future environmental changes will affect their long-term habitat suitability and population persistence. This study aims to identify the factors limiting the distribution of the endangered African wild dog, Lycaon pictus, and determine how biotic interactions and changing climate and land cover will affect future range suitability. We use Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to predict the current and future distribution of suitable conditions for L. pictus and its dominant competitor Panthera leo . We show that range suitability for L. pictus is limited by climatic and land cover variables, as well as high niche and range overlap with P. leo . Although both species are predicted to experience range contractions under future climate change, L. pictus may benefit from release from the effect of interspecific competition in eastern and central parts of its range. Our study highlights the importance of including land cover variables with corresponding future projections and incorporating the effects of competing species when predicting the future distribution of species whose ranges are not solely limited by climate. We conclude that SDMs can help identify priority areas for the long-term conservation of large carnivores, and therefore should be used to inform adaptive conservation management in face of future climate change.