Lifetime Risk of Stroke in Japan
Lifetime Risk of Stroke in Japan
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DOI：
10.1161/strokeaha.110.581363
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发表时间：
2010-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Okamura, Tomonori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury;Kokubo, Yoshihiro;Okamura, Tomonori
研究背景和目的：终生风险（LTR）是一种流行病学指标，它表达了某个指标年龄段在剩余生命期内患病的概率。中风的LTR尚未报告为Japanese population. Methods，我们包括所有参与者从Suita研究谁是心血管疾病的基线。年龄（以年为单位）用作时间尺度。特定的中风发病率和全因死亡率计算的人年的方法，我们估计的性别和指数年龄特异性的LTR的首次中风及其亚型，考虑到竞争的死亡risk of death.Results-We随访了5498名参与者从1989年至2005年，共67 475人年。在55岁时，在考虑了死亡的竞争风险后，男性中风的LTR为18.3%，女性为19.6%。在指数年龄55岁时，脑梗死的LTR男性为14.6%，女性为15.5%，脑出血的LTR男性为2.4%，女性为1.4%。中风的LTR在其他指数年龄45，55和65 years. Conclusions之间保持相似，观察到的概率表明，大约有1/5的中年男性和女性将在其剩余的生命中经历中风。这些易于理解的信息可以作为辅助公共卫生教育和规划的重要指标。（中风。2010; 41：1552-1554.）
Background and Purpose-Lifetime risk (LTR) is an epidemiologic measure that expresses the probability of disease in the remaining lifetime for an index age. The LTR for stroke has not been reported for the Japanese population.Methods-We included all participants from the Suita Study who were cardiovascular disease-free at baseline. Age (in years) was used as the time scale. Age-specific stroke incidence and all-cause mortality were calculated with the person-year method, and we estimated the sex-and index age-specific LTRs of first-ever stroke and its subtypes, taking into account the competing risk of death.Results-We followed up 5498 participants from 1989 to 2005 for a total of 67 475 person-years. At age 55 years, the LTR for stroke, after accounting for competing risks of death, was 18.3% for men and 19.6% for women. The LTR for cerebral infarction was 14.6% for men and 15.5% for women, and the LTR for intracerebral hemorrhage was 2.4% for men and 1.4% for women at the index age of 55 years. The LTR for stroke remained similar across other index ages of 45, 55, and 65 years.Conclusions-The observed probabilities illustrate that approximate to 1 in 5 men and women of middle age will experience stroke in their remaining lifetime. This easy understandable information can be used as an important index to assist in public health education and planning. (Stroke. 2010; 41: 1552-1554.)