Uncertainty, Wages, and the Business Cycle-猫眼课题宝

不确定性、工资和商业周期

DOI：

发表时间：

2020

期刊：

Economic Journal

影响因子：

3.2

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

经济学2区

文献类型：

作者：

M. Cacciatore;Federico Ravenna

We show that limited wage flexibility in economic downturns generates strong and state-dependent amplification of uncertainty shocks. It also explains the cyclical behaviour of empirical measures of uncertainty. In the presence of matching frictions, an occasionally binding constraint on downward wage adjustment enhances the concavity of firms’ hiring rule, resulting in an endogenous profit risk-premium. In turn, higher uncertainty increases the profit risk-premium when the economy operates close to the wage constraint, deepening a recession. Non-linear local projections and vector autoregression estimates support the model predictions. In addition, we show that measured uncertainty rises in a recession even without uncertainty shocks.