Pseudocontingencies and Choice Behavior in Probabilistic Environments With Context-Dependent Outcomes
Pseudocontingencies and Choice Behavior in Probabilistic Environments With Context-Dependent Outcomes
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DOI：
10.1037/xlm0000432
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Fleig, Hanna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Meiser, Thorsten;Rummel, Jan;Fleig, Hanna
伪偶然性是关于环境中的相关性的推断，这些相关性是基于统计学上类似于倾斜的基本速率或跨环境背景的变化的基本速率而形成的。先前的研究已经证明，伪偶然性在许多社会判断任务中提供了一种普遍的归纳推理机制（Fiedler，Freytag和Meiser，2009）。本研究将伪偶然性的分析从社会判断扩展到个人相关性决策情景中的实际选择行为。在4个实验中，参与者首先接触到一个学习环境，在这个环境中，选择选项与积极或消极的结果一起呈现。选择和结果的基准比率是倾斜的，在不同的情况下各不相同。在学习阶段之后，参与者根据先前学习的结果概率在选项之间进行选择，并根据他们的个人表现获得奖励。结果表明，被试在选项和结果之间推断出一种伪偶然性，并在其决策行为中遵循这种伪偶然性（实验1-4）。观察到的伪偶然性是强的背景下，主要是积极的成果和复制不同的学习分布。伪权变效应与个体间的风险厌恶差异有关，并受基础率学习（实验2）和处理时间（实验4）的影响，而具有极端结果的罕见事件的显著性并不影响选择行为（实验3）。这些发现强调了伪偶然性在选择行为中的作用，作为复杂概率环境中决策的主观有效工具。
Pseudocontingencies are inferences about correlations in the environment that are formed on the basis of statistical regularities like skewed base rates or varying base rates across environmental contexts. Previous research has demonstrated that pseudocontingencies provide a pervasive mechanism of inductive inference in numerous social judgment tasks (Fiedler, Freytag, & Meiser, 2009). The present research extended the analysis of pseudocontingencies from social judgment to actual choice behavior in a decision scenario of personal relevance. In 4 experiments, participants were first exposed to a learning environment in which choice options were presented together with positive or negative outcomes. The base rates of options and outcomes were skewed and varied across different contexts. After the learning phase, participants chose between options on the basis of the previously learned outcome probabilities and were rewarded in accordance with their individual performance. The results revealed that participants inferred a pseudocontingency between options and outcomes and followed the pseudocontingency in their decision behavior (Experiments 1-4). The observed pseudocontingency was stronger in a context with predominantly positive outcomes and replicated with different learning distributions. Pseudocontingency effects were related to interindividual differences in risk aversion and moderated by ease of base rate learning (Experiment 2) and processing time (Experiment 4), whereas the salience of rare events with extreme outcomes did not affect choice behavior (Experiment 3). The findings underline the role of pseudocontingencies in choice behavior as a subjectively cogent tool for decision making in complex probabilistic environments.