A 15-year study on the relationship between beech (Fagus crenata) reproductive-organ production and the numbers of nuisance Japanese black bears (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) killed in a snowy rural region in central Japan
A 15-year study on the relationship between beech (Fagus crenata) reproductive-organ production and the numbers of nuisance Japanese black bears (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) killed in a snowy rural region in central Japan
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一项历时 15 年的研究，旨在研究日本中部白雪皑皑的乡村地区山毛榉 (Fagus crenata) 生殖器官的产生与日本黑熊 (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) 死亡数量之间的关系
DOI：
10.1007/s11355-021-00472-9
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Ida Hideyuki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
若山晴輝;平山直樹;中田博子;加藤康作;山方啓;岡研吾 ;前田和彦;Ida Hideyuki
用15年的时间研究了日本中部多雪农村地区山毛榉(Fagus Crenata)生殖器官(雌花：FFS，雄花序：MIS，满桅杆：FMS)的产量与黑熊(Ursus thibetanus Japan onicus，NBS：熊侵入居民区程度的指标)数量的关系。三个研究林分之间山毛榉生殖器官产量的年际波动具有很强的同步性。FFs、Mis和Fms之间存在显著的配对相关。为了确定与5-7月(BMJ)、8月(BA)和9-11月(BSN)期间国家统计局相关的因素，应用了使用广义线性混合效应模型的模型选择程序，其中有两个解释变量：上一年的FMS(PFMS)和本年度的MIS。Pfms和mis对BMJ的影响都很小，这意味着NBS在春季-初夏不受这些变量的影响。MI对BA有显著的负效应，说明在盛夏，当MI较小时，NBS增加。Pfms和Mis分别对BSN有显著的正效应和负效应，表明当Mis(即Fms)较小时，NBS在秋季增加。全氟甲烷的影响比管理不力要小得多。总而言之，从仲夏到秋季，熊侵入人类住区的次数在最少的年份增加，这表明可以通过观察山毛榉林中直到7月的森林地面上落下的老鼠的密度来预测给定年份的季节熊入侵的情况。
The relationship between beech (Fagus crenata) reproductive-organ (female flowers: FFs, male inflorescences: MIs, and filled masts: FMs) production and the numbers of nuisance Japanese black bears (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) killed (NBs: an indicator of the extent of bear intrusions into residential areas) in a snowy rural region in central Japan was studied over 15 years. The yearly fluctuation of beech reproductive-organ productions between the three study stands was strongly synchronous. There were strong significant pairwise correlations between FFs, MIs and FMs. To identify factors associated with NBs in the May–July (BMJ), August (BA), and September–November (BSN) periods, a model selection procedure using generalized linear mixed effect models was applied with two explanatory variables: FMs in the preceding year (PFMs) and MIs in the current year. Both PFMs and MIs had little effect on BMJ, implying that NBs was independent of these variables in the spring–early summer. MIs had a significant negative effect on BA, implying that NBs increased in mid-summer when MIs were small. PFMs and MIs had significant positive and negative effects, respectively, on BSN, implying that NBs increased in the fall when MIs (i.e., FMs) were small. PFMs had a much smaller effect than did MIs. In conclusion, bear intrusions into human settlements from mid-summer to fall increased in years with minimal MIs, suggesting that bear intrusions in the season of a given year can be predicted by observation of the density of MIs fallen on the forest floor until July in beech stands.
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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