Impact of agricultural subsidy policies on Grain Prices in China
Impact of agricultural subsidy policies on Grain Prices in China
复制标题
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2015-02
影响因子：
0.6
通讯作者：
J. Qian;S. Itô;Zhijun Zhao;Y. Mu;L. Hou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Qian;S. Itô;Zhijun Zhao;Y. Mu;L. Hou
在政府广泛干预粮食市场和补贴政策直接支付方式的背景下，补贴政策很难通过增加粮食供给对粮食价格产生负面影响。本研究考察了中国农业补贴政策与粮食市场价格之间的关系，并构建了自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型来评估农业补贴对粮食价格的影响。估计结果表明，补贴变量是非常显着的粮食价格模型中的每一种粮食类型，而补贴的总体影响是积极的。这表明，农业补贴政策有助于提高粮食的市场价格。从统计上看，补贴对大米、小麦和玉米价格的总体弹性分别为0.077、0.094和0.180。理论分析和实证分析均表明，在中国当前的粮食市场条件下，这些补贴对粮食市场价格的影响是正面的，而不是负面的。
On the background of extensive government interventions in grain markets and the direct payment schemes of subsidy policies, the subsidy policies may hardly show negative impacts on grain prices through increasing grain supply. In this study, we investigate the relationship between China's agricultural subsidy policies and market prices for grain and construct autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to evaluate the impacts of agricultural subsidies on grain prices. The estimated results indicate that the subsidy variable is highly significant in the grain price model for each grain type, while the general impacts of subsidies are positive. This suggests that agricultural subsidy policies contribute to increases in market prices for grain. Statistically, the overall elasticities of subsidies to the prices of rice, wheat, and corn are 0.077, 0.094, and 0.180, respectively. Both the theoretical and empirical analyses suggest that these subsidies show positive rather than negative impacts on grain market prices under the current situations in China.