Directional Accuracy of Singapore’s Macroeconomic Forecasts
Directional Accuracy of Singapore’s Macroeconomic Forecasts
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新加坡宏观经济预测的方向准确性
DOI：
10.1142/s0217590819500541
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Young Bin Ahn and Yoichi Tsuchiya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pan Cong;Lee DongJoon;Choi Kangsik;平野 敏弘;Young Bin Ahn and Yoichi Tsuchiya
本研究考察了新加坡宏观经济预测的方向准确性，由专业预测者，政府机构（即，中央银行和贸易和工业部，MTI）和国际组织。结果表明，政府机构提供的预测方向最准确，表明宏观经济和货币政策是有效的。本年度的预测通常是方向准确的，但预测者对下一年的预测存在差异。关于国内生产总值增长，MTI和国际货币基金组织（IMF）提供了长达四个季度的方向准确预测，而其他预测机构提供的预测最多为三个季度。对于消费者价格指数通胀，除了国际货币基金组织，所有其他机构都提供了长达四个季度的准确预测。
This study examines the directional accuracy of Singapore’s macroeconomic forecasts by professional forecasters, government agencies (i.e., central bank and Ministry of Trade and Industry, MTI), and international organizations. The results show that government agencies provide the most directionally accurate forecasts, suggesting that the macroeconomic and monetary policies are effective. Current-year forecasts are generally directionally accurate, with disparities among forecasters for next-year forecasts. Regarding GDP growth, the MTI and International Monetary Fund (IMF) provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead, whereas other forecasters provide them for at most three quarters ahead. For consumer price index inflation, except for the IMF, all others provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead.