CoVA: An Acuity Score for Outpatient Screening that Predicts Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prognosis.
CoVA: An Acuity Score for Outpatient Screening that Predicts Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prognosis.
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jiaa663
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发表时间：
2021-01-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Westover MB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sun H;Jain A;Leone MJ;Alabsi HS;Brenner LN;Ye E;Ge W;Shao YP;Boutros CL;Wang R;Tesh RA;Magdamo C;Collens SI;Ganglberger W;Bassett IV;Meigs JB;Kalpathy-Cramer J;Li MD;Chu JT;Dougan ML;Stratton LW;Rosand J;Fischl B;Das S;Mukerji SS;Robbins GK;Westover MB
我们试图开发一个自动化评分，以预测有2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）风险的患者的住院、危重疾病或死亡。我们基于对呼吸道疾病诊所或急诊科成年门诊患者的单中心研究开发了COVID-19敏锐度评分（CoVA）。数据从Partners Enterprise数据仓库中提取，并分为发展组（n = 9381, 3月7日至5月2日）和前瞻性组（n = 2205, 5月3日至14日）。结果为住院、重症（重症监护病房或通气）或7天内死亡。使用预期与观测事件比（E/O）评估校准。用受者工作曲线下面积（AUC）评价鉴别性。在前瞻性队列中，分别有26.1%、6.3%和0.5%的患者住院、重症或死亡。CoVA在住院（期望与观察比[E/O]: 1.01; AUC: 0.76）、危重疾病（E/O: 1.03; AUC: 0.79）和死亡（E/O: 1.63; AUC: 0.93）的前瞻性验证中表现出色。在30个预测因素中，排名前5位的是年龄、舒张压、血氧饱和度、COVID-19检测状态和呼吸频率。CoVA是一种前瞻性验证的自动化评分，用于预测与COVID-19感染相关的不良事件。在单中心环境下制定并前瞻性验证了2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）门诊筛查评分。它根据30个预测因素预测7天预后：住院、重症监护/通气或死亡，包括人口统计学、COVID-19状态、生命体征、放射学报告和病史。
We sought to develop an automatable score to predict hospitalization, critical illness, or death for patients at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presenting for urgent care. We developed the COVID-19 Acuity Score (CoVA) based on a single-center study of adult outpatients seen in respiratory illness clinics or the emergency department. Data were extracted from the Partners Enterprise Data Warehouse, and split into development (n = 9381, 7 March–2 May) and prospective (n = 2205, 3–14 May) cohorts. Outcomes were hospitalization, critical illness (intensive care unit or ventilation), or death within 7 days. Calibration was assessed using the expected-to-observed event ratio (E/O). Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). In the prospective cohort, 26.1%, 6.3%, and 0.5% of patients experienced hospitalization, critical illness, or death, respectively. CoVA showed excellent performance in prospective validation for hospitalization (expected-to-observed ratio [E/O]: 1.01; AUC: 0.76), for critical illness (E/O: 1.03; AUC: 0.79), and for death (E/O: 1.63; AUC: 0.93). Among 30 predictors, the top 5 were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, and respiratory rate. CoVA is a prospectively validated automatable score for the outpatient setting to predict adverse events related to COVID-19 infection. A coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outpatient screening score is developed and validated prospectively in a single-center setting. It predicts 7-day prognosis: hospitalization, intensive care/ventilation, or death, based on 30 predictors including demographics, COVID-19 status, vital signs, radiology report, and medical history.
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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期刊：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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期刊：
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DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm6915e4
发表时间：
2020-04-17
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
CDC COVID-19 Response Team