Communication of uncertainty regarding individualized cancer risk estimates: effects and influential factors.
Communication of uncertainty regarding individualized cancer risk estimates: effects and influential factors.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1177/0272989x10371830
复制
发表时间：
2011-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Freedman AN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Han PK;Klein WM;Lehman T;Killam B;Massett H;Freedman AN
研究个体化结直肠癌风险评估中沟通不确定性的影响，并确定影响这些影响的因素。进行了两个基于网络的实验，其中40岁及以上的成年人提供了假设的个性化结肠直肠癌风险估计，其程度和表示的不确定性不同。不确定性包括风险估计的不精确性（也称为“模糊性”），并使用不同的置信区间表示法进行传达。实验1（n=240）测试了模糊性（置信区间与点估计）和表征格式（文本与视觉）对癌症风险感知和担忧的影响。潜在的影响修饰符，包括性格类型（乐观），计算能力，和信息的感知可信度进行了检查，沿着的影响，沟通的不确定性对比较风险信息的反应。实验2（n=135）测试了模糊的增强表征，包括补充文本和视觉的解释。沟通的不确定性导致参与者对癌症相关的担忧加剧，这是“模糊厌恶”现象的例证。这种影响是由代表格式和性格乐观;文本（与视觉）格式和低（与高）乐观与更大的歧义厌恶。然而，当增强表征被用来沟通的不确定性，文本和视觉格式表现出类似的效果。不确定性的沟通和视觉格式的使用减少了比较风险信息对风险感知的影响。关于癌症风险估计的不确定性的沟通具有复杂的影响，其中包括提高癌症相关的担忧与模糊性厌恶一致，并减少风险感知的比较风险信息的影响。这些反应受表征格式和人格类型的影响，格式的影响似乎是可修改的和内容依赖的。
To examine the effects of communicating uncertainty regarding individualized colorectal cancer risk estimates, and to identify factors that influence these effects. Two web-based experiments were conducted, in which adults aged 40 years and older were provided with hypothetical individualized colorectal cancer risk estimates differing in the extent and representation of expressed uncertainty. The uncertainty consisted of imprecision (otherwise known as “ambiguity”) of the risk estimates, and was communicated using different representations of confidence intervals. Experiment 1 (n=240) tested the effects of ambiguity (confidence interval vs. point estimate) and representational format (textual vs. visual) on cancer risk perceptions and worry. Potential effect modifiers including personality type (optimism), numeracy, and the information’s perceived credibility were examined, along with the influence of communicating uncertainty on responses to comparative risk information. Experiment 2 (n=135) tested enhanced representations of ambiguity that incorporated supplemental textual and visual depictions. Communicating uncertainty led to heightened cancer-related worry in participants, exemplifying the phenomenon of “ambiguity aversion.” This effect was moderated by representational format and dispositional optimism; textual (vs. visual) format and low (vs. high) optimism were associated with greater ambiguity aversion. However, when enhanced representations were used to communicate uncertainty, textual and visual formats showed similar effects. Both the communication of uncertainty and use of the visual format diminished the influence of comparative risk information on risk perceptions. The communication of uncertainty regarding cancer risk estimates has complex effects, which include heightening cancer-related worry—consistent with ambiguity aversion—and diminishing the influence of comparative risk information on risk perceptions. These responses are influenced by representational format and personality type, and the influence of format appears to be modifiable and content-dependent.