Reintroducing Prediction to Explanation
Reintroducing Prediction to Explanation
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DOI：
10.1086/648111
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发表时间：
2009-10-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Douglas, Heather E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Douglas, Heather E.
尽管在过去的40年里，预测在解释的讨论中基本上是缺席的，但解释理论可以从重新引入中获益匪浅。我回顾了历史上分离的预测解释，检查扩散的解释模型，随后，并认为，帐户的解释已被忽视的预测贫困。我认为，解释不应该被理解为对称性命题的复兴，而应该被理解为一种认知工具，帮助我们产生新的预测。这种解释和预测的观点阐明了什么使解释科学化，以及为什么对最佳解释的推断在科学中是有意义的。
Although prediction has been largely absent from discussions of explanation for the past 40 years, theories of explanation can gain much from a reintroduction. I review the history that divorced prediction from explanation, examine the proliferation of models of explanation that followed, and argue that accounts of explanation have been impoverished by the neglect of prediction. Instead of a revival of the symmetry thesis, I suggest that explanation should be understood as a cognitive tool that assists us in generating new predictions. This view of explanation and prediction clarifies what makes an explanation scientific and why inference to the best explanation makes sense in science.