A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711–2016)
A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711–2016)
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爱尔兰岛 305 年连续月降雨量系列（1711-2016）
DOI：
10.5194/cp-14-413-2018
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
R. Wilby
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Murphy;C. Broderick;T. Burt;M. Curley;Catriona Duffy;Julia Hall;S. Harrigan;T. Matthews;N. Macdonald;G. McCarthy;M. McCarthy;D. Mullan;S. Noone;T. Osborn;C. Ryan;J. Sweeney;P. Thorne;S. Walsh;R. Wilby
为爱尔兰岛创建了连续305年（1711-2016）的月降雨量序列（IoI_1711）。1850年后的系列利用了爱尔兰现有的有质量保证的降雨网络，而1850年前的值来自于汇编的仪器和纪录片系列，但不是由英国气象局出版的。该系列的评估比较独立的长期观测和重建的降水，温度和环流指数从整个英国-爱尔兰群岛。强的十年一贯性的IoI_1711与其他长期观测是显而易见的，在整个年度，北方春季和秋季系列。每年，最近十年（2006-2015年）被发现是300多年来最潮湿的。18世纪40年代至80年代的冬季系列可能过于干燥，但与其他长期观测结果的高度一致性增强了1790年以后的信心。IoI_1711系列在18世纪30年代有非常潮湿的冬季，同时伴随着一段强烈的西风气流，整个斯堪的纳维亚半岛的冰川推进以及英格兰中部温度记录中前所未有的温暖-所有这些都与北大西洋涛动的强烈正相一致。异常潮湿的夏季发生在1750年代，与该地区夏季降水的代理（树轮）重建一致。我们的分析表明，降水的年代际变率比以前认为的要大得多，而与气候变率的关键模式的关系是随时间变化的。IoI_1711系列揭示了冬季（增加）和夏季（减少）季节性降水的统计学显著的多百年趋势。然而，由于初冬记录的不确定性，前一个发现应该被视为试探性的。派生的记录，在欧洲最长的连续系列之一，提供了宝贵的见解，了解几十年和百年降雨变率在爱尔兰，并提供了一个坚实的基础基准其他长期记录和重建过去的气候。爱尔兰降雨量与欧洲其他地区的相关性增加了该系列的效用，以了解进一步地区的历史气候。
A continuous 305-year (1711–2016) monthly rainfall series (IoI_1711) is created for the Island of Ireland. The post 1850 series draws on an existing quality assured rainfall network for Ireland, while pre-1850 values come from instrumental and documentary series compiled, but not published by the UK Met Office. The series is evaluated by comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions of precipitation, temperature and circulation indices from across the British–Irish Isles. Strong decadal consistency of IoI_1711 with other long-term observations is evident throughout the annual, boreal spring and autumn series. Annually, the most recent decade (2006–2015) is found to be the wettest in over 300 years. The winter series is probably too dry between the 1740s and 1780s, but strong consistency with other long-term observations strengthens confidence from 1790 onwards. The IoI_1711 series has remarkably wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England Temperature record – all consistent with a strongly positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Unusually wet summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (tree-ring) reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region. Our analysis shows that inter-decadal variability of precipitation is much larger than previously thought, while relationships with key modes of climate variability are time-variant. The IoI_1711 series reveals statistically significant multi-centennial trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing) seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties in the early winter record, the former finding should be regarded as tentative. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers valuable insights for understanding multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate. Correlation of Irish rainfall with other parts of Europe increases the utility of the series for understanding historical climate in further regions.