Dynamical Downscaling of the Climate for the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: Projection for the Late Twenty-First Century
Dynamical Downscaling of the Climate for the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: Projection for the Late Twenty-First Century
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-16-0038.1
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发表时间：
2016-11
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Chunxi Zhang;Yuqing Wang;K. Hamilton;A. Lauer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chunxi Zhang;Yuqing Wang;K. Hamilton;A. Lauer
摘要：本文用一个精细分辨率区域大气模式对夏威夷21世纪后期的20年预估进行了模拟。采用伪全球变暖方法，边界条件基于在中等温室气体排放情景下运行的全球耦合模式预估的多模式平均值。结果表明：陆地表面气温升高~2 ~ 4℃，在最高地形高度升温最大；在主要岛屿的背风面，变暖幅度较大的温和趋势也很明显。在许多地点，预计气候雨量的变化可达~25%。主要岛屿目前潮湿的迎风面将有更多的云和更多的降雨，而目前干燥的背风面通常会有更少的云和降雨。预估的平均信风逆温基高和平均海洋边界层云高只有很小的变化。然而，f…
AbstractA 20-yr simulation with a fine-resolution regional atmospheric model for projected late twenty-first-century conditions in Hawaii is presented. The pseudo-global-warming method is employed, and the boundary conditions are based on a multimodel mean of projections made with global coupled models run with a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results show that surface air temperature over land increases ~2°–4°C with the greatest warming at the highest topographic heights. A modest tendency for the warming to be larger on the leeward sides of the major islands is also apparent. Climatological rainfall is projected to change up to ~25% at many locations. The currently wet windward sides of the major islands will have more clouds and receive more rainfall, while the currently dry leeward sides will generally have even less clouds and rainfall. The average trade wind inversion–base height and the mean marine boundary layer cloud heights are projected to exhibit only small changes. However, the f...