Projecting future drug expenditures--2003.
Projecting future drug expenditures--2003.
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预测未来药物支出——2003 年。
DOI：
10.1093/ajhp/60.2.137
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hontz,KarrieM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shah,NilayD;Hoffman,JamesM;Vermeulen,LeeC;Hunkler,RobertJ;Hontz,KarrieM
讨论了2003年药品支出预测和可能影响药品成本的因素。美国继续面临卫生支出增长加快的挑战，药品支出的增长速度继续快于医疗保健总支出的增长速度。这些增长很大程度上归因于美国人口平均年龄的增长和技术进步。根据价格通胀和非价格通胀因素，包括数量的增加、患者和治疗强度的变化以及新药的预期批准，预计 2003 年住院机构的药品支出将增加 10-12%，门诊医疗机构的药物支出将增加 13.5-15.5%。虽然预计很少有新药会对 2003 年的支出产生重大影响，但最近批准的药物（如 drotrecogin alfa 和奈西立肽）的持续推广将对药物总支出产生巨大影响，在预算过程中必须仔细考虑。恩夫韦肽是一种可能对 HIV 治疗产生重大影响的药物，它是新型抗逆转录病毒药物（融合抑制剂）中的第一种药物，但其高昂的成本（每年 10,000 美元至 15,000 美元）可能会限制患者获得这种药物。提供了扩展的用户指南，以帮助读者在药品预算过程中适当应用这些信息。技术、人口和基于市场的变化以及公共政策的变化将继续影响来年的药品支出。了解药物支出的总体驱动因素并保持警惕监控药物创新对于有效管理这些资源至关重要。
Drug expenditure projections for 2003 and factors likely to influence drug costs are discussed.The United States continues to face the challenge of increased growth in health expenditures, and drug expenditures are continuing to increase faster than the growth in total health care expenditures. These increases can be largely attributed to an increase in the average age of the U.S. population and technological advancement. On the basis of price inflation and non-price inflationary factors, including increases in volume, shifts in patient and therapeutic intensity, and expected approval of new drugs, a 10-12% increase in drug expenditures in 2003 for the inpatient setting and a 13.5-15.5% increase for ambulatory care settings are forecasted. While few new drugs are expected to greatly influence expenditures in 2003, the continued diffusion of recently approved drugs such as drotrecogin alfa and nesiritide will have a dramatic impact on total drug expenditures and must be carefully considered in the budgeting process. An agent likely to have a significant impact on HIV treatment is enfuvirtide, the first in a new class of antiretrovirals (fusion inhibitors), but its high cost ($10,000-$15,000 per year) may limit patients’ access to this medication. An expanded user’s guide is provided to assist the reader in appropriate application of this information in the drug budgeting process.Technological, demographic, and market-based changes and changes in public policy will continue to influence pharmaceutical expenditures in the coming year. An understanding of the overall drivers of medication expenditures and vigilance in monitoring pharmaceutical innovation are critical in the effective management of these resources.