Uncertainty based load reduction scenario analysis for Lake Dianchi using nonlinear response function-embedded Monte Carlo simulation
Uncertainty based load reduction scenario analysis for Lake Dianchi using nonlinear response function-embedded Monte Carlo simulation
复制标题
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Huaicheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Huaicheng
水质模型可以提供一种有效的方法来确定允许的垃圾负荷和预测不同垃圾负荷分配情景的后果，而相关的不确定性分析可以为决策者提供有关决策中潜在风险的有用信息。对于滇池，关键的管理问题是确定水质对流域减负的响应。为了支持基于风险的决策，在水质数值模型的基础上推导了一个分析响应函数，并将其嵌入到蒙特卡罗模拟中，作为耗时的模拟模型的替代计算效率。两种不同水平的不确定性，5%和10%的随机变异性，模型结果表明，在两种不确定性水平下，Ⅲ和Ⅴ类水质目标对应的负荷削减相对安全，水质违规风险较低；相反，Ⅳ类水质目标对应的负荷削减风险中等，违反相应水质目标的概率比Ⅲ和Ⅴ类目标高。对叶绿素-a响应的蒙特卡罗模拟表明，营养物质的减少可以导致叶绿素-A的显著下降。然而，即使该水质目标达到了滇池最激进的Ⅲ类目标，藻类水华的风险仍然相对较高。
Water quality modeling can provide an effective way to determine permissible waste load and predict consequences of different waste load allocation scenarios,while related uncertainty analysis can provide decision makers useful information regarding the potential risk in decision makings.For Lake Dianchi,the key management problem is to determine how the water quality would respond to the load reduction in the watershed.To support risk based decision making,an analytical response function was derived based on the numerical water quality model and was embedded into a Monte Carlo simulation as a surrogate of the time-consuming simulation model for computational efficiency.Two different levels of uncertainties,5% and 10% stochastic variability,are considered in this analysis.The model results indicated that under the two uncertainty levels,the load reduction corresponding to Class Ⅲ and Ⅴ water quality targets are relatively safer with lower water quality violation risk.On the contrary,the load reduction corresponding to the Class Ⅳ water quality target is moderately risky that has higher probability of violating the corresponding water quality targets than the scenarios for Class Ⅲ and Ⅴ targets.The Monte Carlo simulation for Chlorophyll-a response showed that the reduction of nutrient can result in significant decrease in chlorophyll-a.However,there is still relatively higher risk of algal bloom even though the water quality target achieves the most aggressive Class Ⅲ target in Lake Dianchi.