Demographics and Automation
Demographics and Automation
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DOI：
10.1093/restud/rdab031
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发表时间：
2021-06-10
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Restrepo, Pascual
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Acemoglu, Daron;Restrepo, Pascual
我们从理论上和经验上证明，老龄化导致更大的（工业）自动化，因为它造成了专门从事手工生产任务的中年工人的短缺。我们发现，人口结构的变化与各国更多地采用机器人和其他自动化技术以及美国通勤区更多的机器人相关活动有关。我们还记录了老龄化速度更快的国家的更多自动化创新。我们的定向技术变革模型预测，在更多依赖中年工人的行业和那些提供更大自动化机会的行业中，自动化技术对老龄化的反应应该更加明显，并且生产率应该提高，劳动力份额应该相对下降。更适合自动化的行业。证据支持所有这四个预测。
We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across U.S. commuting zones. We also document more automation innovation in countries undergoing faster aging. Our directed technological change model predicts that the response of automation technologies to aging should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation and that productivity should improve and the labor share should decline relatively in industries that are more amenable to automation. The evidence supports all four of these predictions.