Deep-ocean heat uptake and equilibrium climate response
Deep-ocean heat uptake and equilibrium climate response
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-012-1350-z
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发表时间：
2013-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Marotzke, Jochem
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Chao;von Storch, Jin-Song;Marotzke, Jochem
我们将耦合气候模式ECHAM5/MPIOM积分到大气二氧化碳四倍增长下的平衡状态。平衡的全球平均表面温度变化为10.8K，表面在大约1200年内达到平衡，深海在5000年内达到平衡。通过ECHAM5/MPIOM和ECHAM5/SOM耦合海洋模式(ECHAM5/SOM)的差异，说明了深海对平衡表层温度响应的影响。ECHAM5/SOM模式的平衡全球平均地表温度响应为11.1K，比ECHAM5/MPIOM模式高0.3K。ECHAM5/MPIOM显示，北半球中高纬度地区变暖较少，但热带海洋，特别是南半球高纬度地区变暖较大。ECHAM5/MPIOM在北极和南极表现出相似的极地放大，而ECHAM5/SOM在北半球表现出更强的极地放大。ECHAM5/MPIOM的南极深海对流和等周期混合导致的海洋变暖大大延缓了南极的气候变暖。在二氧化碳浓度翻两番的情况下，海洋温度的平衡升温约为8.0K，且随深度的变化接近均匀。全球平均海平面上升平衡为5.8米；其中2.3米是由于表层温度接近平衡后深海变暖所致。这一结果表明，从长期来看，地表温度变化不能很好地预测海平面的变化。Gregory等人描述的有效气候响应方法。结果表明，该方法对均衡气候响应的估计精度在10%以内。
We integrate the coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPIOM to equilibrium under atmospheric CO2 quadrupling. The equilibrium global-mean surface-temperature change is 10.8 K. The surface equilibrates within about 1,200 years, the deep ocean within 5,000 years. The impact of the deep ocean on the equilibrium surface-temperature response is illustrated by the difference between ECHAM5/MPIOM and ECHAM5 coupled with slab ocean model (ECHAM5/SOM). The equilibrium global-mean surface temperature response is 11.1 K in ECHAM5/SOM and is thus 0.3 K higher than in ECHAM5/MPIOM. ECHAM5/MPIOM shows less warming over the northern-hemisphere mid and high latitudes, but larger warming over the tropical ocean and especially over the southern-hemisphere high latitudes. ECHAM5/MPIOM shows similar polar amplification in both the Arctic and the Antarctic, in contrast to ECHAM5/SOM, which shows stronger polar amplification in the northern hemisphere. The southern polar warming in ECHAM5/MPIOM is greatly delayed by Antarctic deep-ocean warming due to convective and isopycnal mixing. The equilibrium ocean temperature warming under CO2 quadrupling is around 8.0 K and is near-uniform with depth. The global-mean steric sea-level rise is 5.8 m in equilibrium; of this, 2.3 m are due to the deep-ocean warming after the surface temperature has almost equilibrated. This result suggests that the surface temperature change is a poor predictor for steric sea-level change in the long term. The effective climate response method described in Gregory et al. (2004) is evaluated with our simulation, which shows that their method to estimate the equilibrium climate response is accurate to within 10 %.