The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale
The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.010
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发表时间：
2013-04-12
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Gosling, Simon N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell, Nigel W.;Gosling, Simon N.
本文使用全球水文模型，通过使用 21 个 CMIP3（耦合模型比对项目第三阶段）气候模型的模式缩放构建的气候情景，评估了气候变化对全球范围内一系列水文状况指标的影响。将变化与自然变率进行比较，显着变化被定义为在没有气候变化的情况下大于水文指标的标准差。根据 SRES（排放情景特别报告）A1b 排放情景，到 2050 年，大部分陆地表面（不包括格陵兰岛和南极洲）的水文行为将经历重大变化；在一种气候模型情景（哈德利中心 HadCM3）下，年平均径流显着增加超过 47% 的地表面积，并减少超过 36%；因此只有 17% 的人认为没有重大变化。区域之间存在相当大的差异，主要取决于预计的降水量变化。预测河流流量状况的不确定性主要是气候模型之间气候变化空间模式的变化（不包括水文模型的不确定性）。然而，变化的总体幅度和方向具有很强的一致性。超过三分之二的气候模型预测，近四分之一陆地表面的年平均径流将显着增加，而年均径流将显着减少 14% 以上，而且某些地区的一致性程度要高得多。大多数气候模型预测加拿大、高纬度东欧和西伯利亚的径流会增加，而中欧、地中海周边、马什里克、中美洲和巴西的径流会减少。有一些证据表明，区域尺度径流的项目变化与全球平均温度变化的变化并不呈线性关系。未来排放率的不确定性影响相对较小。 (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Changes are compared with natural variability, with a significant change being defined as greater than the standard deviation of the hydrological indicator in the absence of climate change. Under an SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1b emissions scenario, substantial proportions of the land surface (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) would experience significant changes in hydrological behaviour by 2050; under one climate model scenario (Hadley Centre HadCM3), average annual runoff increases significantly over 47% of the land surface and decreases over 36%; only 17% therefore sees no significant change. There is considerable variability between regions, depending largely on projected changes in precipitation. Uncertainty in projected river flow regimes is dominated by variation in the spatial patterns of climate change between climate models (hydrological model uncertainty is not included). There is, however, a strong degree of consistency in the overall magnitude and direction of change. More than two-thirds of climate models project a significant increase in average annual runoff across almost a quarter of the land surface, and a significant decrease over 14%, with considerably higher degrees of consistency in some regions. Most climate models project increases in runoff in Canada and high-latitude eastern Europe and Siberia, and decreases in runoff in central Europe, around the Mediterranean, the Mashriq, central America and Brasil. There is some evidence that project change in runoff at the regional scale is not linear with change in global average temperature change. The effects of uncertainty in the rate of future emissions is relatively small. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.