Safety Evaluation of Evacuation Routes in Central Tokyo Assuming a Large-Scale Evacuation in Case of Earthquake Disasters
Safety Evaluation of Evacuation Routes in Central Tokyo Assuming a Large-Scale Evacuation in Case of Earthquake Disasters
复制标题
地震灾害发生时大规模避难的东京市中心避难路线的安全性评价
DOI：
10.3390/jrfm10030014
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ximing Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kayoko Yamamoto;Ximing Li
本研究的目的是进行定量评估疏散路线的安全性，使用蚁群优化（ACO）算法的风险管理在东京市中心。首先，在考虑道路阻塞概率的同时，重点考虑了安全性的相似性。然后，通过分层聚类分析的道路分类，使用蚁群算法模拟疏散路线的拥挤率估计。在此基础上，利用地理信息系统（GIS）将提取的多条疏散路线在数字地图上可视化，并对其安全性进行了评价。此外，在地震灾害后大规模疏散的可能性高的情况下，可以在疏散地点之间选择安全的疏散路线。由于评价方法是基于公开信息，通过获得与本研究相同的地理信息，它在其他地区是有效的，无论信息是来自过去还是未来。因此，除了空间再现性之外，该评价方法还具有高的时间再现性。由于对疏散路线的安全性评价是基于量化的数据进行的，因此对所选择的高安全性疏散路线进行了量化评价，从而在选择疏散路线时成为有效的指标。
The present study aims to conduct a quantitative evaluation of evacuation route safety using the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm for risk management in central Tokyo. Firstly, the similarity in safety was focused on while taking into consideration road blockage probability. Then, by classifying roads by means of the hierarchical cluster analysis, the congestion rates of evacuation routes using ACO simulations were estimated. Based on these results, the multiple evacuation routes extracted were visualized on digital maps by means of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and their safety was evaluated. Furthermore, the selection of safe evacuation routes between evacuation sites for cases when the possibility of large-scale evacuation after an earthquake disaster is high is made possible. As the evaluation method is based on public information, by obtaining the same geographic information as the present study, it is effective in other areas, regardless of whether the information is from the past or future. Therefore, in addition to spatial reproducibility, the evaluation method also has high temporal reproducibility. Because safety evaluations are conducted on evacuation routes based on quantified data, the selected highly safe evacuation routes have been quantitatively evaluated, and thus serve as an effective indicator when selecting evacuation routes.