Does a Climate Clock Get a Noisy Boost?
Does a Climate Clock Get a Noisy Boost?
复制标题
气候时钟会产生噪音吗？
DOI：
10.1126/science.290.5492.697
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
R. Kerr
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Kerr
三名研究人员在思考大约 1500 年变暖和变冷循环背后的原因，他们认为这是两个气候驱动因素的结合，每个驱动因素都太弱，无法单独产生巨大影响。当一个严格的周期性循环与适量的完全不规则的噪音结合在一起时，这种组合就可以实现“随机共振”，并引发上一个冰河时代或下一个可能由人类引发的小冰河时代的剧烈气候变化。没有人声称这一情况已得到证实，但如果属实，这将使对未来气候的预测变得复杂。
Three researchers pondering what could be behind a roughly 1500-year cycle of warming and cooling are suggesting that it is a combination of two climate drivers, each too weak to have a large effect on its own. When a strictly periodic cycle teams up with just the right amount of thoroughly irregular noise, the combination could achieve "stochastic resonance" and set off the dramatic climate shifts of the last ice age--or the next, possibly human-triggered, Little Ice Age. No one is claiming the case is proven, but if true it will complicate predictions of future climate.