The farmers' livelihood risk and their coping strategy in the downstream of Shiyang River: A case of Minqin Oasis
The farmers' livelihood risk and their coping strategy in the downstream of Shiyang River: A case of Minqin Oasis
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DOI：
10.11821/dlyj201505011
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发表时间：
2015-06
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Zhao Xueya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhao Xueya
环境中一直存在着各种民生风险，这些风险会降低个人或家庭的福利水平，制约地区的可持续发展。石羊河流域地处我国西北干旱地区，属于典型的干旱内陆流域。农民作为石羊河下游的主要经济活动单位，面临着严重的生计风险，加剧了农民生计的脆弱性。当前迫切需要识别农民面临的重点生计风险，挖掘阻碍农民抵御风险的潜在因素，寻求有效的风险应对策略。通过分层随机抽样调查、参与式乡村评价和样地调查，共调查抽样484户。农民分为四种类型：纯农户、农业依存户、非农依存户和非农户。基于调查数据，识别农户面临的主要生计风险及其风险应对策略，并利用多元Logistic模型分析影响农户风险策略选择的因素。研究结果表明:(1)市场风险、教育风险和自然风险一直是石羊河下游农户面临的主要生计风险,但不同类型农户之间存在差异。纯农户和农业依赖户面临的三大生计风险是来自市场、教育和自然；离农户面临的风险来自市场、健康和教育； (2)主要风险应对策略包括减少消费、外出打工、储蓄、向亲友求助、向银行贷款等。但不同类型农户的风险应对策略选择存在一定差异。非农户首选外出务工，其他三类农户则选择减少消费；(3)影响风险应对策略选择的最重要因素是人力资本、金融资本和社会资本，物质资本次之；自然资本的影响力最弱。最后提出了降低农民生计风险可能性的风险控制措施，并提出了提升农民风险应对能力的建议。
There have always been kinds of livelihood risks in the environment, which will lower the level of the person or the family welfare, and restrict the region sustainable development.Shiyang River basin is located in the arid area of northwest China, and belongs to the typical arid inland basin. As the major economic activity unit in the downstream of the Shiyang River,the farmers are faced with the serious livelihood risk, which has aggravated the farmers' livelihood vulnerability. It is extremely urgent now to distinguish the key livelihood risk which the farmers are facing, explore the potential factors which has hindered the farmers to resist the risk and seek the effective risk coping strategy. Through stratified random sampling survey, participatory rural appraisal and investigation of plot, 484 households are investigated and sampled. Farmers are divided into four types: pure agriculture households, agriculture- dependent households, off- farm dependent households and off- farm households. Based on the investigation data, we identify the main livelihood risk which the farmers are faced with and their risk coping strategies, and analyze the factors which influence the farmers' risk strategy choice using the multi- logistic model. The results show:(1) The market risk, education risk and nature risk have been the main livelihood risks which the farmers are facing in the downstream of Shiyang River, but there are differences among different types of farmers. The top three livelihood risks facing the pure agriculture households and agriculture- dependent households are from market, education and nature; the risks facing the off-farm dependent households are from market, health and education; the risks facing the off- farm households are education, health and pension risk in sequence.(2) The main risk coping strategies include reducing consumption, going out to work, dissaving, asking relatives and friends for help and getting bank loans. However, there are some differences in the risk coping strategy choices among the different types of farmers. The first choice of off-farm households is going out to work, but the other three types of farmers would choose reducing consumption;(3) The most important factors which influence the choices of risk coping strategies are human capital, financial capital and social capital;material capital comes second; nature capital has the weakest influence. Finally, we present the risk control measures to reduce the livelihood risk possibility and give the suggestions to promote the farmers' risk coping ability.