Projected impacts of federal tax policy proposals on mortality burden in the United States: A microsimulation analysis.
Projected impacts of federal tax policy proposals on mortality burden in the United States: A microsimulation analysis.
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联邦税收政策提案对美国死亡率负担的预计影响：微观模拟分析。
DOI：
10.1016/j.ypmed.2017.10.021
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Kim,Daniel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kim,Daniel
影响收入不平等的联邦所得税政策对公共卫生的影响尚不清楚。我的目的是根据最近两位美国总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普和参议员伯尼·桑德斯的提议，预测修改联邦所得税结构对死亡率的影响。我使用最新的美国国税局公用税务文件（带有州标识符（2008 纳税年度））进行了微观模拟分析，其中包含来自 139,651 份纳税申报表的全国代表性数据。我考虑了五种税收计划情景：1）2008 年实际税收结构；当时的候选人 2) 特朗普和 3) 桑德斯在 2016 年提出的提案； 4）修改后的桑德斯计划，最高税率更高（75%）； 5) 修改后的桑德斯计划，提高最高税率，并向低收入家庭（<40,000 美元/年）重新分配收入。我将收入不平等的预测变化与人口动态统计数据以及过去对收入不平等、收入和死亡率之间联系的估计结合起来。根据特朗普和桑德斯的计划，预计每年因各种原因造成的死亡人数将分别增加 29,689 人（95% CI：10,865–48,920），减少 31,302 人（95% CI：11,455–51,577）人。根据修改后的桑德斯计划，包括提高最高死亡率，预计每年死亡人数将减少 68,919 人（95% CI：25,221-113,561）。根据修改后的桑德斯重新分配计划，预计每年死亡人数将减少 333,504 人（95% CI：192,897–473,787）。提高联邦所得税税率和重新分配税收收入的政策可能会大幅减少美国人每年的死亡总数。在这个收入不平等严重、公众对解决贫富差距问题的支持不断增加的时代，政策制定者应考虑将联合联邦税收和再分配政策作为减轻美国死亡率负担的杠杆。
The public health consequences of federal income tax policies that influence income inequality are not well understood. I aimed to project the impacts on mortality of modifying federal income tax structures based on proposals by two recent United States (U.S.) Presidential candidates: Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders. I performed a microsimulation analysis using the latest U.S. Internal Revenue Service public-use tax file with state identifiers (2008 tax year), containing nationally-representative data from 139,651 tax returns. I considered five tax plan scenarios: 1) actual 2008 tax structures; proposals in 2016 by then-candidates 2) Trump and 3) Sanders; 4) a modified Sanders plan with higher top tax rates (75%); and 5) a modified Sanders plan with higher top rates plus revenue redistribution to lower-income households (<$40,000/year). I combined projected changes in income inequality with vital statistics data and past estimates of linkages between income inequality, income, and mortality. 29,689 (95% CI: 10,865–48,920) more deaths/year and 31,302 (95% CI: 11,455–51,577) fewer deaths/year from all causes are anticipated under the Trump and Sanders plans, respectively. Under the modified Sanders plan including higher top rates, 68,919 (95% CI: 25,221–113,561) fewer deaths/year are projected. Under the modified Sanders plan with redistribution, 333,504 (95% CI: 192,897–473,787) fewer deaths/year are expected. Policies that both raise federal income tax rates and redistribute tax revenue could confer large reductions in the total number of annual deaths among Americans. In this era of high income inequality and growing public support to address the rich-poor gap, policymakers should consider joint federal tax and redistributive policies as levers to reduce the burden of mortality in the United States.