Conditional distribution selection for SPEI-daily and its revealed meteorological drought characteristics in China from 1961 to 2017
Conditional distribution selection for SPEI-daily and its revealed meteorological drought characteristics in China from 1961 to 2017
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SPEI-daily的条件分布选择及其揭示的1961-2017年中国气象干旱特征
DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105108
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发表时间：
2020-12-01
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Huang, Hao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ma, Bin;Zhang, Bo;Huang, Hao
干旱是最复杂的自然灾害之一，而气象干旱是其他类型干旱的根本原因。以儒略历的SPEI为时间步长，计算了1961 - 2017年中国所有的气象干旱事件。分析讨论了气象干旱事件的持续时间和强度以及影响其发展的主要气象因子。研究表明，对数Logistic分布的归一化结果几乎服从标准正态分布，SPEI逐日比SPEI月能更详细地反映干旱过程;我国东部季风区气象干旱事件发生频率高、持续时间短、干旱强度弱，而西北干旱区气象干旱事件发生频率低，1961 - 2017年中国干旱事件发生频率的变化趋势与全球趋势一致; Sobol全球敏感性分析的干旱事件主导因子表明，1961 ~ 1980年西北干旱区和华南地区以PET为主的干旱事件发生频率减少，揭示的中国气象干旱事件的变化特征，不仅可以为防灾减灾提供参考，也可以为中国适应全球气候变化提供启示。
Drought is one of the most complex natural disasters, while meteorological drought is the root cause of other types of drought. In this study, all meteorological drought events in China from 1961 to 2017 were calculated using the SPEI of the Julian calendar as a time step. The duration and intensity of meteorological drought events and the major meteorological factors that dominated their development were analyzed and discussed. Our study reveals that the normalized results of the log-logistic distribution almost subject to the standard normal dis- tribution; SPEI-daily can capture more detailed drought process than SPEI-month; The frequency of meteor- ological drought events in the eastern monsoon area of China is high, the duration is short, and the intensity of drought is weak, while the frequency of drought events the northwest arid region is low, the duration is long, and the intensity is strong; Trend of the drought events' frequency of China from 1961 to 2017 is consistent with the global trend; The dominant factors of drought events by Sobol's global sensitivity analysis revealed that the frequency of drought events dominated by PET in the northwest arid region and southern China decreased from 1961 to 1980, and began to increase after 1990; The characteristics of the changes in China's meteorological drought events that we reveal can not only provide reference for disaster prevention and mitigation, but also provide insights for China to adapt to global climate change.