Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.
Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph13020188
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发表时间：
2016-02-03
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Chi HJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hsiao HI;Jan MS;Chi HJ
本研究旨在探讨台湾地区气候变迁与副溶血性弧菌感染率之关系。具体而言，季节性自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型（包括自回归，季节性和滞后效应）被用来预测气候因素（包括温度，降雨量，相对湿度，海洋温度和海洋盐度）在2000年和2011年之间的副溶血性弧菌在台湾的发病率的作用。结果表明，平均温度（+）、海洋温度（+）、6个月前的海洋盐度（+）、最大日降雨量（当前（-）和1个月前（-））和平均相对湿度（当前和9个月前（-））对副溶血性弧菌的发病率有显著影响。我们的研究结果提供了一个新的观点，在台湾的气候变化和副溶血性弧菌食物中毒之间的定量关系。未来需要一个基于气候变化信息的疾病控制管理预警系统。
This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (−) and one month ago (−)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (−)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.