The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity
The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018
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发表时间：
2018-04
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
A. Dessler;T. Mauritsen;B. Stevens
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Dessler;T. Mauritsen;B. Stevens
摘要。地球吸收的太阳能和辐射到太空的地球能量之间的平衡制约着我们的气候。这种能量平衡已被广泛用于从20世纪的变暖观测中推断平衡气候敏感性（ECS）。这种估计值比其他方法产生的值低，并且在最近的评估中，这些估计值对压低ECS的共识范围产生了影响。在这里，我们使用马克斯普朗克研究所地球系统模型（MPI-ESM1.1）对1850-2005年期间已知强迫的100个成员集合进行了测试。我们使用能量平衡计算每个集成成员的ECS，得到的值从2.1到3.9 K不等。集合中的分布与能量收支框架中的中心假设有关：即全球平均地表温度异常指示了输出能量（陆地源或反射太阳能）的异常。我们发现这一假设在模式集合的历史温度记录或最近的卫星观测中没有得到很好的支持。我们发现，以500 hPa热带温度为框架的能量平衡能更好地描述地球的能量平衡。
Abstract. Our climate is constrained by the balance between solar energy absorbed by the Earth and terrestrial energy radiated to space. This energy balance has been widely used to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from observations of 20th-century warming. Such estimates yield lower values than other methods, and these have been influential in pushing down the consensus ECS range in recent assessments. Here we test the method using a 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.1) simulations of the period 1850–2005 with known forcing. We calculate ECS in each ensemble member using energy balance, yielding values ranging from 2.1 to 3.9 K. The spread in the ensemble is related to the central assumption in the energy budget framework: that global average surface temperature anomalies are indicative of anomalies in outgoing energy (either of terrestrial origin or reflected solar energy). We find that this assumption is not well supported over the historical temperature record in the model ensemble or more recent satellite observations. We find that framing energy balance in terms of 500 hPa tropical temperature better describes the planet's energy balance.