Comparison of risk estimates for selected diseases and causes of death
Comparison of risk estimates for selected diseases and causes of death
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DOI：
10.1006/pmed.1998.0399
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发表时间：
1999-02-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Feuer, EJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Merrill, RM;Kessler, LG;Feuer, EJ
背景资料。对疾病的终生风险估计受到长期数据外推的限制，与已经生活了一段时间而没有疾病，但正在接近疾病风险变得普遍的年龄的个人相关性较小。相比之下，与年龄相关的短期风险估计，如在给定年龄存活并未患上疾病的人在未来10年内患上疾病的风险，受当前发病率的长期外推的限制较小，可以向患者提供根据他们的年龄量身定制的风险信息。这项研究侧重于对白人和黑人男性和女性中一系列重要的慢性病和非疾病死亡原因的短期年龄条件风险估计。The Feuer et al.(1993，《国家癌症研究所杂志》)[15]方法被应用于各种来源的数据，以获得选定癌症、心肌梗死、糖尿病、多发性硬化症、阿尔茨海默氏症、机动车事故死亡、凶杀或法律干预以及自杀的风险估计。自杀、凶杀或法律干预导致的急性死亡，以及致命的机动车事故，在20多岁的人群中占主导地位，只有糖尿病和终末期肾脏疾病治疗(仅针对黑人)在这一年龄段具有类似的风险水平。在晚年，癌症、急性心肌梗塞、阿尔茨海默氏症和中风成为最常见的疾病。影响人们晚年生活的慢性病是人们最有可能面临的疾病。不同年龄、种族和性别的人群在疾病和死亡风险方面有几个有趣的差异。结论，在人群中呈现短期年龄范围内广泛的慢性病和非疾病死亡原因的风险估计提供了量身定制的信息，可能导致更好的预防、筛查和控制行为以及更有效地分配卫生资源。(C)1999年美国健康基金会和学术出版社。
Background. Lifetime risk estimates of disease are limited by long-term data extrapolations and are less relevant to individuals who have already lived a period of time without the disease, but are approaching the age at which the disease risk becomes common. In contrast, short-term age-conditional risk estimates, such as the risk of developing a disease in the next 10 years among those alive and free of the disease at a given age, are less restricted by long-term extrapolation of current rates and can present patients with risk information tailored to their age. This study focuses on short-term age-conditional risk estimates for a broad set of important chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death among white and black men and women.Methods. The Feuer et al. (1993, Journal of the National Cancer Institute) [15] method was applied to data from a variety of sources to obtain risk estimates for select cancers, myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer's, and death from motor vehicle accidents, homicide or legal intervention, and suicide.Results. Acute deaths from suicide, homicide or legal intervention, and fatal motor vehicle accidents dominate the risk picture for persons in their 20s, with only diabetes mellitus and end-stage renal disease therapy (for blacks only) having similar levels of risk in this age range. Late in life, cancer, acute myocardial infarction, Alzheimer's, and stroke become most common. The chronic diseases affecting the population later in life present the most likely diseases someone will face. Several interesting differences in disease and death risks were derived and reported among age specific race and gender subgroups of the population.Conclusion, Presentation of risk estimates for a broad set of chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death within short-term age ranges among population subgroups provides tailored information that may lead to better educated prevention, screening, and control behaviors and more efficient allocation of health resources. (C) 1999 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.