Japanese Assessments of China's Military Development*
Japanese Assessments of China's Military Development*
复制标题
日本对中国军事发展的评估*
作者：
Y. Matsuda
中国的军事力量日益现代化是一个事实。再加上中国经济实力的崛起，这在历史上是前所未有的。因此，作为一个区域大国和美国的盟友，日本自然会密切关注这一新的现实。本文的目的是从不同的角度回顾日本是如何评估中国军事现代化的。该评论综合考虑了民意调查、政府官方解释和专家意见。应该指出的是，在日本，公开讨论军事或安全问题是一种社会禁忌。在评估中国在特定情况下的反应时，日本政府对中国军事实力的官方立场持保留态度。在日本，即使是关于中国军事的学术研究也不受欢迎。事实上，大多数研究中国军事的专家都是历史学家。在日本，不存在政府情报官员和学者参与并建立联系的专家社区。因此，这篇评论是汇集日本对中国军事发展的评估和反应的第一步。现实情况是，没有针对中国军队进行过专门的民意调查。取而代之的是，由首相领导的内阁府对外交进行民意调查，其中包括公民对主要国家的亲和力。从历史上看，日本人倾向于感觉与中国“亲近”，因为民意调查通常显示，超过60%的人表达了这种观点。到2005年底，对中国持正面看法的人下降到只有32.4%，而持负面看法的人达到63.4%（见图1）。尽管自2006年日本首相小泉纯一郎（Koizumi Junichiro）辞职以来，中日关系的紧张局势有所缓和，但很明显，普通日本人对中国的总体印象急剧下降。一项民意调查确实特别询问了来自中国的威胁。2005年11月，《读卖新闻》和盖洛普联合进行的民意调查显示，73%的受访者认为本国政府与中国的关系“不好”，72%的受访者表示“不信任中国”，还有76%的受访者表示“感到受到中国的威胁”。相比之下，62%的受访者表示，他们认为日美关系是两国关系。联盟认为“有用”。2006年《读卖新闻》（Yomiuri Shimbun）的一项民意调查（见表1）更能说明问题，44%的受访者认为中国对日本构成安全威胁。只有朝鲜被列为更大的威胁。受访者还被要求“说出你认为在经济和政治上将成为亚洲最有影响力的国家”。56.7%的日本受访者选择了中国。美国排名第二。《读卖新闻》（Yomiuri Shimbun）和盖洛普（gallup）联合进行的民意调查显示，中日关系艰难，加上中国的经济和军事增长，加剧了日本将中国视为威胁的看法。在这里，“威胁”一词可能与“担忧”或“恐惧”同义。然而，这种观点并非完全没有根据；它反映了中国的经济发展、军事现代化等现实，但没有民主化的迹象，而且对日本不敏感。日本政客和普通民众一样，毫不犹豫地表达自己对中国的严厉看法。一些人甚至对中国的某些行为持非常强烈的反对立场。例如，2005年12月，时任日本民主党党首的前原诚司在华盛顿战略与国际研究中心的一次演讲中说：“很难否认，中国不仅在经济上，而且在军事上都在快速发展。”…
Introduction It is a fact that China has increasingly modernized its military power. This, in conjunction with China's rising economic power, is new to history. It is hence natural that Japan, both as a regional great power and as an ally of the United States, heeds close attention to this new reality. The objective here is to review from various perspectives how Japan assesses the modernization of the Chinese military. The commentary takes account of public opinion polls, official interpretation by the government, and experts' opinions. It should be noted that in Japan, it is something of a social taboo openly to discuss military- or security-related issues. When it comes to evaluating how China might react in certain circumstances, the Japanese government has had reservations about taking an official position on China's military might. Even scholarly research in Japan on the Chinese military is not welcome. Most experts on the China military are in fact historians. No community of specialists exists in Japan where government intelligence officers and scholars get involved and build ties. This commentary thus is among the first steps toward bringing together Japanese assessments of and reactions to China's military development. Public Opinion on China The reality is that no public opinion polls have been conducted specifically with respect to China's military. Instead, the Cabinet Office under the prime minister takes polls on diplomacy, which include citizens' affinity toward major countries. Historically, the Japanese tend to feel "close" to China, as polls typically showed more than 60 percent expressing that view. But the figure plummeted with the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident, and took a further descending path after 2003. At the end of 2005, the rating of those having a favorable view toward China dropped to only 32.4 percent, while those not having a favorable view reached 63.4 percent (see Figure 1). Although tension over bilateral relations has relaxed since the resignation of Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro in 2006, it is clear that the overall impression of China among average Japanese has sunk dramatically. One poll did specifically ask about a threat from China. According to the joint opinion polls conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun and Gallop in November 2005, 73 percent of the respondents said that their government's relationship with China is "bad," another 72 percent said they "do not trust China," and still another 76 percent indicated that they "feel threatened by China." By contrast, 62 percent of the respondents said they think of the Japan-U.S. alliance as "useful."1 Even more revealing was a 2006 Yomiuri Shimbun opinion poll (see Table 1) in which 44 percent of those polled saw China as a security threat to Japan. Only North Korea was rated as a greater threat. People were also asked to "name the country that, economically and politically, you think will become the most influential in Asia." An overwhelming 56.7 percent of the Japanese respondents chose China. The United States ranked next. Opinion polls such as the one by the Yomiuri Shimbun/Gallop have suggested that a difficult Japanese-Chinese relationship, accompanied by China's economic and military growth, added to the view of China as a threat. Here the term "threat" is probably synonymous with a "concern" or "fear." Yet this view is not entirely groundless; it reflects such realities as China's economic development, military modernization without a sign of democratization, and moves insensitive toward Japan. Japanese politicians, like average citizens, no longer hesitate to express their own harsh opinions of China. Some even take a very strong position of opposing certain Chinese actions. For instance, Maehara Seiji, then head of the Democratic Party of Japan, said in a December 2005 talk at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies that "it is hard to deny that China has grown at a rapid pace not only economically but militarily as well. …