The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth
The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth
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内生增长下的商业周期成本
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.442382
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Gadi Barlevy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gadi Barlevy
卢卡斯（Lucas，1987）在他著名的专著中提出了一个论点，即减少总消费波动性所带来的福利收益是可以忽略不计的。随后重新审视卢卡斯计算的工作继续发现，减少消费波动性只带来很小的好处，进一步强化了商业周期无关紧要的看法。相反，本文认为波动可以通过影响消费增长率来影响福利。我提出了一个论点，为什么波动可以降低增长从一个给定的初始消费，这可能意味着大量的福利效应，卢卡斯（1987）已经在他的计算中观察到。经验证据和校准工作表明，福利效应可能是巨大的，大约比卢卡斯最初的估计大两个数量级。
In his famous monograph, Lucas (1987) put forth an argument that the welfare gains from reducing the volatility of aggregate consumption are negligible. Subsequent work that revisited Lucas' calculation continued to find only small benefits from reducing the volatility of consumption, further reinforcing the perception that business cycles don't matter. This paper argues instead that fluctuations can affect welfare by affecting the growth rate of consumption. I present an argument for why fluctuations can reduce growth starting from a given initial consumption, which could imply substantial welfare effects as Lucas (1987) already observed in his calculation. Empirical evidence and calibration exercises suggest that the welfare effects are likely to be substantial, about two orders of magnitude greater than Lucas' original estimates.