A multifactor transformed diffusion model with applications to VIX and VIX futures

A multifactor transformed diffusion model with applications to VIX and VIX futures
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多因素转换扩散模型及其在 VIX 和 VIX 期货中的应用

DOI:
10.1080/07474938.2019.1690195
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发表时间:
2019
影响因子:
1.2
通讯作者:
Bu R
Bu R
中科院分区:
经济学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Bu R

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由于其模型的灵活性和易处理性,变换扩散模型在金融建模中越来越受欢迎。虽然现有的TD模型主要是单因素模型,但经验证据往往倾向于多因素模型。提出了一种新的分布驱动的含潜在成分的非线性多因子TD模型。我们的模型是一个潜在的多变量Ornstein-Uhlenbeck(MVOU)过程的变换,其中的变换函数是内生指定的灵活的参数平稳分布的观测变量。计算效率高的精确似然推断可以实现我们的模型使用修改后的卡尔曼滤波算法和变换后的仿射结构也允许我们定价衍生品的半封闭形式。我们比较了建议的多因素模型与现有的TD模型建模波动率指数和定价波动率指数期货。我们的研究结果表明,该模型优于所有现有的TD模型,无论是在样本中,并在我们比较的所有类别和场景一致的样本。
Transformed diffusions (TDs) have become increasingly popular in financial modeling for their model flexibility and tractability. While existing TD models are predominately one-factor models, empirical evidence often prefers models with multiple factors. We propose a novel distribution-driven nonlinear multifactor TD model with latent components. Our model is a transformation of a underlying multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (MVOU) process, where the transformation function is endogenously specified by a flexible parametric stationary distribution of the observed variable. Computationally efficient exact likelihood inference can be implemented for our model using a modified Kalman filter algorithm and the transformed affine structure also allows us to price derivatives in semi-closed form. We compare the proposed multifactor model with existing TD models for modeling VIX and pricing VIX futures. Our results show that the proposed model outperforms all existing TD models both in the sample and out of the sample consistently across all categories and scenarios of our comparison.
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