On the Use of Ensemble Predictions for Parametric Typhoon Insurance
On the Use of Ensemble Predictions for Parametric Typhoon Insurance
复制标题
台风参数化保险中的包围预报
DOI：
10.3390/cli9120174
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
K. Ng;G. Leckebusch;Qian Ye;Wenwen Ying;Haoran Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Ng;G. Leckebusch;Qian Ye;Wenwen Ying;Haoran Zhao
参数台风保险是一种越来越多地使用的金融工具，用于减轻热带气旋的巨大影响，因为它们可以快速分配急需的资源，例如用于灾后恢复。为了优化参数保险的可靠性和效率，必须为任何灾后赔付制定明确的触发点。这需要对给定区域进行强有力的局部危害评估。然而，由于严重登陆的热带气旋很少见，因此很难根据历史观测获得可靠的危害评估。最近的一种方法利用最先进的集合预测系统中未实现的高影响热带气旋来构建物理上一致的事件集，这相当于大约 10,000 年的观测。在本研究中，我们证明（1）可以从本地角度构建参数台风保险的替代触发点，并且可以通过与当前实践的实验设置进行比较来分析此类触发点的附加值； （2）可以改进省级热带气旋相关损失发生的估算。我们进一步讨论了一般热带气旋复合参数保险的潜在未来发展。
Parametric typhoon insurances are an increasingly used financial tool to mitigate the enormous impact of tropical cyclones, as they can quickly distribute much-needed resources, e.g., for post-disaster recovery. In order to optimise the reliability and efficiency of parametric insurance, it is essential to have well-defined trigger points for any post-disaster payout. This requires a robust localised hazard assessment for a given region. However, due to the rarity of severe, landfalling tropical cyclones, it is difficult to obtain a robust hazard assessment based on historical observations. A recent approach makes use of unrealised, high impact tropical cyclones from state-of-the-art ensemble prediction systems to build a physically consistent event set, which would be equivalent to about 10,000 years of observations. In this study, we demonstrate that (1) alternative trigger points of parametric typhoon insurance can be constructed from a local perspective and the added value of such trigger points can be analysed by comparing with an experimental set-up informed by current practice; (2) the estimation of the occurrence of tropical cyclone-related losses on the provincial level can be improved. We further discuss the potential future development of a general tropical cyclone compound parametric insurance.