Back to the future: Testing different scenarios for the next supercontinent gathering
Back to the future: Testing different scenarios for the next supercontinent gathering
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.07.015
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发表时间：
2018-10-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Duarte, Joao C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davies, Hannah S.;Green, J. A. Mattias;Duarte, Joao C.
板块构造理论和大规模、深层旋回的发现，如超级大陆旋回和威尔逊旋回，为地球历史上几个超级大陆的识别做出了贡献。利用板块构造理论的规则以及俯冲带和地幔对流的动力学，可以设想下一个超级大陆的形成情景，据信该超级大陆将在未来 200-300 Ma 左右发生。在这里，我们通过使用 GPlates 以新颖且标准化的方式构建下一个超级大陆的形成，探索了四种主要的假设情景。每种情景都经历不同的威尔逊和超级大陆循环模式（即内向、外向、正向和组合），说明它们之间的关系并非微不足道，并表明这些模式应被视为一系列可能性的最终成员。虽然对未来的建模存在局限性和假设，但这里四个未来超级大陆的构建使人们对威尔逊和超级大陆循环背后的机制有了新的见解。例如，它们的关系可能很复杂（就相同或不同的顺序，或者彼此同相或异相而言），并且它们相互作用的不同方式可能导致大规模地幔重组的不同结果。这项工作与中生代以来的地球动力学重建相结合，可以模拟整个当今的超级大陆旋回和各自涉及的威尔逊旋回。这项工作有潜力用作许多研究的背景，它最近刚刚被用于潮汐模拟实验，以测试与超大陆循环相关的超潮汐循环的存在。
The theory of plate tectonics and the discovery of large scale, deep-time cycles, such as the Supercontinent cycle and Wilson cycle, has contributed to the identification of several supercontinents in Earth's history. Using the rules of plate tectonic theory, and the dynamics of subduction zones and mantle convection, it is possible to envisage scenarios for the formation of the next supercontinent, which is believed to occur around 200-300 Ma into the future. Here, we explore the four main proposed scenarios for the formation of the next supercontinent by constructing them, using GPlates, in a novel and standardised way. Each scenario undergoes different modes of Wilson and Supercontinent cycles (i.e., introversion, extroversion, orthoversion, and combination), illustrating that the relationship between them is not trivial and suggesting that these modes should be treated as end-members of a spectrum of possibilities. While modelling the future has limitations and assumptions, the construction of the four future supercontinents here has led to new insights into the mechanisms behind Wilson and Supercontinent cycles. For example, their relationship can be complex (in terms of being of the same or different order, or being in or out of phase with each other) and the different ways they can interact may led to different outcomes of large-scale mantle reorganization. This work, when combined with geodynamical reconstructions since the Mesozoic allows the simulation of the entire present-day Supercontinent cycle and the respectively involved Wilson cycles. This work has the potential to be used as the background for a number of studies, it was just recently used in tidal modelling experiments to test the existence of a Supertidal cycle associated with the Supercontinent cycle.