Future precipitation changes and their implications for tropical peatlands
Future precipitation changes and their implications for tropical peatlands
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DOI：
10.1029/2006gl028364
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发表时间：
2007-01-12
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Canadell, Josep G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Wenhong;Dickinson, Robert E.;Canadell, Josep G.
东南亚和亚马逊热带泥炭地的碳（C）如果释放到大气中，可以大大增加大气二氧化碳的增长率。在世界上最广泛的热带泥炭地所在的东南亚，IPCC第四次评估的11个气候模型显示，未来旱季的降雨量总体减少。在亚马逊河流域，未来旱季的降雨量变化具有高度不确定性;五个模型预测降雨量增加，其余模型预测相反。我们进一步研究了UKMO-HadCM 3、GISS-ER和GFDL-CM 2.1模型。在东南亚，所有三个模型预测类似的降雨量和蒸发分数的减少，这意味着在赤道以南的旱季水位深度和表面干燥的增加。这种变化可能会使泥炭生态系统从碳汇转变为碳源。在亚马逊河流域，两个模型与目前的降雨量最好的模拟产生相互矛盾的结果，未来的泥炭稳定性。
Carbon ( C) in tropical peatlands over Southeast Asia and Amazonia, if released to the atmosphere, can substantially increase the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Over Southeast Asia, where the most extensive tropical peatlands in the world occur, 11 climate models for the IPCC Fourth Assessment show an overall decrease of rainfall in future dry seasons. Over Amazonia, future rainfall changes in dry seasons are highly uncertain; five models predict increased rainfall, and the remaining models predict the opposite. We have further examined the UKMO-HadCM3, GISS-ER, and GFDL-CM2.1 models. Over Southeast Asia, all three models predict similar decreases of rainfall and evaporative fraction, implying an increase of water table depth and surface dryness during the dry season south of the equator. Such changes would potentially switch peat ecosystems from acting as C sinks to C sources. Over Amazonia, the two models with the best simulations of current rainfall produce conflicting results for the future of peat stability.