Preliminary reconstructions of spring precipitation in southwestern Turkey from tree‐ring width
Preliminary reconstructions of spring precipitation in southwestern Turkey from tree‐ring width
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从树轮宽度初步重建土耳其西南部春季降水
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Brian S. Wallin
中科院分区：
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作者：
R. Touchan;G. Garfin;D. Meko;G. Funkhouser;N. Erkan;M. Hughes;Brian S. Wallin
土耳其西南部的春季（5月至6月）降水量的两个重建。第一次重建（1776-1998年）是根据雪松、杜松、黑松和黑松的九个年表的主成分进行的。第二次重建（1339-1998）是从三个J. excelsa年表的主成分中得出的。两次重建的校准和验证统计数据表明，土耳其西南部春季降水的重建相当准确，并显示出春季降水多年至十年变化的明确证据。重建春旱的最长时期是4年（1476- 1479年），定义为连续几年5 - 6月降水量低于正常值的80%。在过去的六个世纪里，只有一次干旱事件发生了如此长的时间。蒙特卡洛分析表明，土耳其西南部在过去660年中经历春旱超过5年的概率不到33%。除了1476- 1479年延长的干旱期外，从1700年到现在只发生过3年的春旱。最长的重建湿润期，定义为连续多年超过120%的正常5月至6月的降水量，是4年（1532-35）。在16和17世纪没有延长的春旱，而在这些世纪中出现了延长的潮湿春季，这表明气候可能发生了变化。对大尺度气候变化和这些气候重建之间联系的初步分析表明，该地区春季降水极端和异常大气环流之间存在联系。版权所有© 2003年皇家气象学会。
Two reconstructions of spring (May–June) precipitation have been developed for southwestern Turkey. The first reconstruction (1776–1998) was developed from principal components of nine chronologies of Cedrus libani, Juniperus excelsa, Pinus brutia, and Pinus nigra. The second reconstruction (1339–1998) was derived from principal components of three J. excelsa chronologies. Calibration and verification statistics of both reconstructions indicate reasonably accurate reconstruction of spring precipitation for southwestern Turkey, and show clear evidence of multi‐year to decadal variations in spring precipitation. The longest period of reconstructed spring drought, defined as consecutive years with less than 80% of normal May–June precipitation, was 4 years (1476–79). Only one drought event of this duration has occurred during the last six centuries. Monte Carlo analysis indicates a less than 33% probability that southwestern Turkey has experienced spring drought longer than 5 years in the past 660 years. Apart from the 1476–79 extended dry period, spring droughts of 3 years in length have only occurred from 1700 to the present. The longest reconstructed wet period, defined as consecutive years with more than 120% of normal May–June precipitation, was 4 years (1532–35). The absence of extended spring drought during the 16th and 17th centuries and the occurrence of extended wet spring periods during these centuries suggest a possible regime shift in climate. Preliminary analysis of links between large‐scale climatic variation and these climate reconstructions shows that there is a relationship between extremes in spring precipitation and anomalous atmospheric circulation in the region. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.