Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world
Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world
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DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2010.0290
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发表时间：
2011-01-13
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Bows, Alice
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson, Kevin;Bows, Alice
《哥本哈根雅阁》重申了国际社会“将全球气温上升幅度控制在2摄氏度以下”的承诺。然而，它更倾向于侧重于全球排放峰值日期和长期减排目标，而不求助于累积排放预算，这严重掩盖了履行这一承诺所需的缓解规模和范围。此外，非附件一国家的排放在为附件一排放路径形成可用空间方面的关键重要性得到并继续得到很少的关注。在以前研究的基础上，本文使用了一个累积排放框架，分解为附件1和非附件1国家，以了解中国和印度等国家排放快速增长对其他国家减缓率的影响。分析表明，尽管高层发表了相反的声明，但现在几乎没有机会将全球平均表面温度保持在或低于2摄氏度。此外，与2摄氏度相关的影响已被向上修订，足以使2摄氏度现在更适合代表“危险”和“极端危险”气候变化之间的阈值。最后，气候变化科学与附件1和非附件1国家的排放情景相结合，提出了一个与许多其他分析，特别是那些直接为政策提供信息的分析截然不同的减缓和适应挑战框架。
The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2 degrees C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2 degrees C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2 degrees C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.