A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts
A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts
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DOI：
10.1029/2019rg000644
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发表时间：
2019-06
影响因子：
25.2
通讯作者：
Rong‐Hua Zhang;R. Sutton;G. Danabasoglu;Young‐Oh Kwon;R. Marsh;S. Yeager;D. Amrhein;C. Little
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rong‐Hua Zhang;R. Sutton;G. Danabasoglu;Young‐Oh Kwon;R. Marsh;S. Yeager;D. Amrhein;C. Little
本文综合了近年来采用多种方法（现代观测、古重建和气候模式模拟）的研究成果，全面回顾了大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）与大西洋多年代际变率（AMV）及其气候影响之间的联系。有强有力的观测和模式证据表明，多年代际AMOC变率是观测到的AMV和相关气候影响的关键驱动因素，也是提高年代际可预测性和预测技能的重要来源。AMOC - AMV连锁与观察到的AMV关键元件一致。此外，这一综合还指出了AMOC在一系列与AMV相关的气候现象中所起的主导作用，这些气候现象具有巨大的社会和经济影响，例如，热带辐合带转移；萨赫勒和印度季风；大西洋飓风;El Niño-Southern振荡；太平洋年代际变率；北大西洋涛动；欧洲、北美和亚洲的气候；北极海冰和地表气温；和半球尺度表面温度。古气候证据表明，在工业化前时代，AMOC的多年代际变率与AMV以及许多相关的气候影响之间可能也存在类似的联系，AMV在红噪声背景上显著增强了多年代际功率，并且AMV主要不是由外部强迫驱动的。在大多数最先进的气候模式中，AMOC在AMV和相关气候影响中的作用被低估了，这对未来理解和预测AMV和相关气候影响提出了重大挑战，但也带来了巨大机遇。
By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC‐AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV‐related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric‐scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state‐of‐the‐art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.