Local, regional, and global adaptations to a compound pandemic-weather stress event
Local, regional, and global adaptations to a compound pandemic-weather stress event
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe3
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发表时间：
2023-02
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
I. Haqiqi;D. Grogan;Marziyeh Bahalou Horeh;Jing Liu;U. Baldos;R. Lammers;T. Hertel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Haqiqi;D. Grogan;Marziyeh Bahalou Horeh;Jing Liu;U. Baldos;R. Lammers;T. Hertel
全球粮食安全可能受到短期极端事件的威胁，这些事件对粮食生产、粮食购买力和农业经济活动产生负面影响。与此同时，由于同样的短期极端压力，温室气体（GHG）等环境污染物可以减少。压力事件包括COVID-19等大流行病和2015年经历的大范围干旱。在这里，我们考虑这样一个问题：如果COVID-19与2015年一样的干旱年同时发生，会怎么样？使用一个耦合的生物医药经济模型框架，我们评估了这种复合压力将如何改变农业部门的温室气体排放量和改变全球营养不良人口的数量。我们进一步考虑了三个相互依赖的适应方案：作物生产的当地用水，耕地面积的区域转移和农产品的全球贸易。我们发现，由于农业部门经济活动的减少，温室气体排放量有所下降，但这与发展中国家营养不良人口的大量增加有关。利用自然资源的地方和区域适应措施，通过增加全球贸易，能够在全球范围内减少受影响的人口。
Global food security can be threatened by short-term extreme events that negatively impact food production, food purchasing power, and agricultural economic activity. At the same time, environmental pollutants like greenhouse gases (GHGs) can be reduced due to the same short-term extreme stressors. Stress events include pandemics like COVID-19 and widespread droughts like those experienced in 2015. Here we consider the question: what if COVID-19 had co-occurred with a 2015-like drought year? Using a coupled biophysical-economic modeling framework, we evaluate how this compound stress would alter both agricultural sector GHG emissions and change the number of undernourished people worldwide. We further consider three interdependent adaptation options: local water use for crop production, regional shifts in cropland area, and global trade of agricultural products. We find that GHG emissions decline due to reduced economic activity in the agricultural sector, but this is paired with large increases in undernourished populations in developing nations. Local and regional adaptations that make use of natural resources enable global-scale reductions in impacted populations via increased global trade.