Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority
Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority
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DOI：
10.1111/1758-5899.12002
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Bostrom, Nick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bostrom, Nick
存在的风险是那些威胁到整个人类未来的风险。许多价值理论暗示，即使是相对较小的净生存风险降低，也有巨大的预期价值。尽管它们很重要，但围绕人类灭绝风险和相关危险的问题仍然知之甚少。在本文中，我澄清了生存风险的概念，并提出了一种改进的分类方案。我讨论了存在主义风险和价值论基本问题之间的关系，并展示了存在主义风险降低(通过马克西波克规则)如何成为功利主义关切的强有力的行动指导原则。我还展示了存在风险的概念如何暗示了一种思考可持续发展理想的新方式。政策含义中心点生存风险是一个可以关注长期全球努力和可持续发展问题的概念。中心点位最大的生存风险是人为的，与潜在的未来技术有关。一个道义上的理由是，降低生存风险比任何其他全球公共利益都更重要。中心点的可持续性应该用动态的方式重新定义，目标是可持续的轨迹，而不是可持续的状态。一些小的生存风险今天可以直接(如小行星)或间接地(通过建立复原力和储备以提高在一系列极端情况下的生存能力)得到缓解，但更重要的是建设能力，以提高人类应对本世纪晚些时候将出现的更大生存风险的能力。这将需要集体智慧、技术远见，以及在必要时动员全球对预期的生死存亡风险做出强有力的协调反应的能力。也许当今降低生存风险的最具成本效益的方法是从长远的角度对广泛的生存风险和潜在的缓解战略进行分析。
Existential risks are those that threaten the entire future of humanity. Many theories of value imply that even relatively small reductions in net existential risk have enormous expected value. Despite their importance, issues surrounding human-extinction risks and related hazards remain poorly understood. In this article, I clarify the concept of existential risk and develop an improved classification scheme. I discuss the relation between existential risks and basic issues in axiology, and show how existential risk reduction (via the maxipok rule) can serve as a strongly action-guiding principle for utilitarian concerns. I also show how the notion of existential risk suggests a new way of thinking about the ideal of sustainability. Policy Implications center dot Existential risk is a concept that can focus long-term global efforts and sustainability concerns. center dot The biggest existential risks are anthropogenic and related to potential future technologies. center dot A moral case can be made that existential risk reduction is strictly more important than any other global public good. center dot Sustainability should be reconceptualised in dynamic terms, as aiming for a sustainable trajectory rather than a sustainable state. center dot Some small existential risks can be mitigated today directly (e.g. asteroids) or indirectly (by building resilience and reserves to increase survivability in a range of extreme scenarios) but it is more important to build capacity to improve humanity's ability to deal with the larger existential risks that will arise later in this century. This will require collective wisdom, technology foresight, and the ability when necessary to mobilise a strong global coordinated response to anticipated existential risks. center dot Perhaps the most cost-effective way to reduce existential risks today is to fund analysis of a wide range of existential risks and potential mitigation strategies, with a long-term perspective.