Model-dependent spatial skill in pseudoproxy experiments testing climate field reconstruction methods for the Common Era
Model-dependent spatial skill in pseudoproxy experiments testing climate field reconstruction methods for the Common Era
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-015-2684-0
复制
发表时间：
2016-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Ault, Toby R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smerdon, Jason E.;Coats, Sloan;Ault, Toby R.
四个气候场重建（CFR）方法的空间技巧进行了研究，使用伪代用指标实验（PPE）的基础上，从耦合和古模式相互比较项目第5和第3阶段（CMIP 5/PMIP 3）数据档案的五个最后的千年和历史模拟。这些模拟是第一次在PPE的上下文中，其中构建的框架来测试最近组装的多代理网络和多个CFR技术。实验证实了早期的研究结果，表明一致的方法性能，在所有衍生的CFRs的方法和空间相关的重建误差。重建领域的光谱偏差表明，CFR方法可以单独改变在所有位置的光谱功率的比例在该领域中，独立于是否有任何固有的光谱偏差在底层的pseudoproxy系列。光谱偏差的模式是依赖于模型的，并表示潜在的地区在派生的CFRs被偏置的变化，无论是低或高频率的频谱功率。CFR的方法也被证明是改变在中世纪气候异常和小冰期的热带太平洋的平均差异的模式，与一些模型实验表明，CFR的方法提高了统计的可能性，实现较大的平均差异独立的300年期间在该地区。CFR性能的所有特征都依赖于模型，这表明CFR方法必须在多个模型中进行评估，并且PPE的结论应仔细连接到真实世界气候场的空间统计数据。
The spatial skill of four climate field reconstruction (CFR) methods is investigated using pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) based on five last millennium and historical simulations from the Coupled and Paleo Model Intercomparison Projects Phases 5 and 3 (CMIP5/PMIP3) data archives. These simulations are used for the first time in a PPE context, the frameworks of which are constructed to test a recently assembled multiproxy network and multiple CFR techniques. The experiments confirm earlier findings demonstrating consistent methodological performance across the employed methods and spatially dependent reconstruction errors in all of the derived CFRs. Spectral biases in the reconstructed fields demonstrate that CFR methods can alone alter the ratio of spectral power at all locations in the field, independent of whether there are any spectral biases inherent in the underlying pseudoproxy series. The patterns of spectral biases are model dependent and indicate the potential for regions in the derived CFRs to be biased by changes in either low or high-frequency spectral power. CFR methods are also shown to alter the pattern of mean differences in the tropical Pacific during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, with some model experiments indicating that CFR methodologies enhance the statistical likelihood of achieving larger mean differences between independent 300-year periods in the region. All of the characteristics of CFR performance are model dependent, indicating that CFR methods must be evaluated across multiple models and that conclusions from PPEs should be carefully connected to the spatial statistics of real-world climatic fields.