Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study.
Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(14)62114-0
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发表时间：
2015-07-25
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Armstrong B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gasparrini A;Guo Y;Hashizume M;Lavigne E;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Tobias A;Tong S;Rocklöv J;Forsberg B;Leone M;De Sario M;Bell ML;Guo YL;Wu CF;Kan H;Yi SM;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Saldiva PH;Honda Y;Kim H;Armstrong B
虽然研究提供了某些国家因炎热或寒冷而过早死亡的估计数，但迄今为止还没有一项研究对暴露于不同气候的人口在整个温度范围内进行系统评估。我们的目的是量化归因于非最佳环境温度的总死亡率负担，以及热和冷以及中等和极端温度的相对贡献。我们收集了澳大利亚、巴西、加拿大、中国、意大利、日本、韩国、西班牙、瑞典、中国台湾、泰国、英国和美国384个地点的数据。我们为每个地点拟合了一个标准的时间序列泊松模型，控制了趋势和星期几。我们用一个有21天滞后的分布滞后非线性模型估计了温度与死亡率的关系，然后将它们合并到一个多变量元回归中，其中包括国家指标和温度平均值和范围。我们计算了热和冷的归因死亡，定义为高于和低于最佳温度的温度，对应于最低死亡率点，以及中等和极端温度，使用2.5和97.5温度梯度的截止值定义。我们分析了1985年至2012年不同时期的74225200例死亡病例。 总体而言，在研究期间，所选国家的7.71%（95%经验CI 7.43 - 7.91）的死亡率可归因于非最佳温度，国家间差异很大，从泰国的3.37%（3.06 - 3.63）到中国的11.00%（9.29 - 12.47）。最低死亡率的温度百分位数从热带地区的大约60百分位数到温带地区的大约80- 90百分位数不等。由温度引起的死亡，寒冷（7.29%，7.02 ~ 7.49）多于炎热（0.42%，0.39 ~ 0.44）。极冷和极热温度对总死亡率的影响为0.86%（0.84 ~ 0.87）。大部分与温度相关的死亡负担可归因于寒冷。极端气温日数的影响远小于温和但非最佳天气的影响。这一证据对于规划公共卫生干预措施以最大限度地减少不利温度对健康的影响以及预测气候变化情景中的未来影响具有重要意义。英国医学研究理事会。
Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality. Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. UK Medical Research Council.