Early Indicators of Human Activity During COVID-19 Period Using Digital Trace Data of Population Activities
Early Indicators of Human Activity During COVID-19 Period Using Digital Trace Data of Population Activities
复制标题
DOI：
10.3389/fbuil.2020.607961
复制
发表时间：
2021-02-04
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Mostafavi, Ali
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gao, Xinyu;Fan, Chao;Mostafavi, Ali
COVID-19等大流行病的传播与人类活动密切相关。本文的目的是根据从数字跟踪数据中获得的人类活动模式，在疫情爆发的初始阶段，指定和检查城市疾病传播风险的早期指标。在这项研究中，维纳布尔斯距离（D-v）和活动密度（D-a）被用来量化和评估美国193个县的人类活动，这些县截至2020年3月31日的累计确诊病例数超过100例。Venables距离提供了一个衡量人类活动聚集程度的指标，该指标基于一个城市或一个县的人类活动平均距离（距离越小，接触风险越大）。活动密度是衡量一个县或一个城市的总体活动水平的一个指标（更多的活动可能导致更大的风险）。据此，本文采用皮尔逊相关分析来检验这两个人类活动指标与未来几周的基本生殖数之间的关系。结果表明，各县的人类活动指标与基本再生产数之间存在显著的相关性，两者之间存在显著的主从关系（时滞）。结果还表明，活动指标的变化与基本繁殖数的下降之间有一至两周的滞后。这一结果意味着人类活动指标在疫情爆发的早期阶段为大流行的传播风险提供了有效的早期指标。因此，当局可利用这些结果，主动监测每日Venables距离和活动密度，以主动评估疾病传播的风险。
The spread of pandemics such as COVID-19 is strongly linked to human activities. The objective of this article is to specify and examine early indicators of disease spread risk in cities during the initial stages of outbreak based on patterns of human activities obtained from digital trace data. In this study, the Venables distance (D-v) and the activity density (D-a) are used to quantify and evaluate human activities for 193 United States counties, whose cumulative number of confirmed cases was greater than 100 as of March 31, 2020. Venables distance provides a measure of the agglomeration of the level of human activities based on the average distance of human activities across a city or a county (less distance could lead to a greater contact risk). Activity density provides a measure of level of overall activity level in a county or a city (more activity could lead to a greater risk). Accordingly, Pearson correlation analysis is used to examine the relationship between the two human activity indicators and the basic reproduction number in the following weeks. The results show statistically significant correlations between the indicators of human activities and the basic reproduction number in all counties, as well as a significant leader-follower relationship (time lag) between them. The results also show one to two weeks' lag between the change in activity indicators and the decrease in the basic reproduction number. This result implies that the human activity indicators provide effective early indicators for the spread risk of the pandemic during the early stages of the outbreak. Hence, the results could be used by the authorities to proactively assess the risk of disease spread by monitoring the daily Venables distance and activity density in a proactive manner.