Modelling the effect of habitat fragmentation on range expansion in a butterfly
Modelling the effect of habitat fragmentation on range expansion in a butterfly
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模拟栖息地破碎化对蝴蝶活动范围扩张的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Wilson;Z. Davies;C. Thomas
养护方案越来越需要对生物多样性对环境变化的反应作出定量预测。这种预测对于促进破碎景观中的物种恢复，以及理解和促进分布对气候变化的反应尤为重要。在这里，我们的模型扩展率的测试物种（一种罕见的蝴蝶，Hesperia逗号）在五个景观超过18年（代），使用集合种群模型（发病率函数模型）。扩展率增加的面积，质量和接近的栖息地补丁殖民化，预测的扩展率密切匹配的测试景观中观察到的速率。栖息地破碎化限制扩张，但在一个可预测的方式，这表明它将被证明是可行的，既要了解扩张率的变化，并制定保护计划，以增加这些物种的范围扩张率。
There is an increasing need for conservation programmes to make quantitative predictions of biodiversity responses to changed environments. Such predictions will be particularly important to promote species recovery in fragmented landscapes, and to understand and facilitate distribution responses to climate change. Here, we model expansion rates of a test species (a rare butterfly, Hesperia comma) in five landscapes over 18 years (generations), using a metapopulation model (the incidence function model). Expansion rates increased with the area, quality and proximity of habitat patches available for colonization, with predicted expansion rates closely matching observed rates in test landscapes. Habitat fragmentation constrained expansion, but in a predictable way, suggesting that it will prove feasible both to understand variation in expansion rates and to develop conservation programmes to increase rates of range expansion in such species.